Data Dive : Metrics that Correlate
January 16, 2025
When evaluating high school prospects, I often look to four boxes to check in order to determine the future profile and ceiling. The tools/stuff, frame, actions/athleticism, and the in-game evaluations. The mental makeup is certainly worth noting, though it is unable to be quantified, but is a large indicator of whether a prospect will reach their ceiling or not. A player doesn't have to check every box, though a deficiency in one area should be made up by an abundant strength elsewhere. For instance, the undersized player makes up for it with present stuff / tools, and the lesser productive player now makes up for it with tools/traits to bet on.
Of all the boxes to check, the easiest is to put a right now grade on is the tools/stuff, or the metrics. All others are built over the course of my track record with a player, though the tools can be quantified rather quickly. Our winter showcase season nears and we always see big gains after the offseason at this time. Our showcases allow us to capture a variety of different metrics that helps our staff evaluate the player's toolset, while serving as key recruiting information stored with video in each player's Prep Baseball profile. The question is, which metrics matter the most? I dug into data from the last four signing classes in Indiana to show what single tool, or combination of tools, yields the highest percentage of players that ended up committing to programs at the division one level in that time frame.
Can one metric get you recruited?
In the four year span, the single metric that most accurately predicts a player to commit to the division one level is a 95 mph fastball. 13 of 14 (93%) players in this span that hit that number ended up committing to a division one, with former Carroll-Flora standout Will Eldridge being the outlier, who is now at Indiana after spending two seasons at Indiana Wesleyan. Dropping the number to 92 mph, it goes to 43 of 49 (88%). Dropping to 90 mph, we get 74%, while that number raises to 80% for pitchers above 6-foot-2.
2022 RHP Will Eldridge (@weldridge1523) was absolutely dominate for @CarrollHighBase, racking up 11 K’s in his 4IP.
— Prep Baseball Indiana (@PrepBaseballIN) May 10, 2022
6’4/190 pound @IWU_Baseball recruit.
FB 92-95 🔥🔥🔥
BB 79-81 pic.twitter.com/Th6Tgjrsmk
What about for a hitter? Where a player can stand out in multiple areas? Ultimately, the hit and glove tools are truly evaluated best in a game setting, but the power, speed, and arm can all be quantified.
I set the bar at a sub 6.6 60, a 93-plus arm positionally, and an exit velocity of 104 mph. In my mind, that is when a tool starts to become elite at the high school level, give or take a tick here or there. In this data set, 75% of players with a 104 mph exit velocity verbaled to a division one. When that number goes to 100 mph, its 40%. A 93-plus arm positionally was next, with 19 of 26 (73%) while 47% of players who reached 90 mph committed to the D1 level. An elite run tool alone was the least likely, with 9 of 16 (56%).
Read along for interesting trends when multiple solid tools are combined with frames and handiness.
- Position Velocity at 90+ mph, 100 mph exit velocity - 67% (14 of 21)
- Position Velocity at 90+ mph, sub 6.7 60 - 45% (9 of 20)
- Sub 6.7 60, 95 mph exit velocity - 46% (13 of 28)
- When filtered for LHH above 6-foot tall - 85% (6 of 7)
- 100 mph exit velocity, sub 7.00 60 - 49% (17 of 35)
- When filter for hitters above 6-foot tall and left-handed - 75% (6 of 8)
- Shortstops
- sub 6.7 runner, 95 exit velocity, 85 mph infield velocity - 78% (7 of 9)
- sub 7 runner, 90 exit velocity, 85 mph infield velocity, hits left-handed - 100% (6 of 6)
- Catchers
- sub 2.00 pop time, 95 mph exit velocity, sub 7.2 60 - 35% (5 of 14)
- When filtered for above 6-foot tall - 40% (4 of 10)
- When filtered for LHH above 6-foot - 100% (2 of 2)
- More for Pitchers
- Pitchers with a slider of 85 mph or better - 100% (9 of 9)
- 6-foot or taller, LHP, reaching 90 mph - 100% (13 of 13)