2016 PIAA Class AA Super 16 (mid-April update)

By Jacob Gill
Pennsylvania Assistant Director of Scouting

and PBR staff

Three-and-a-half weeks into the season, it's time to roll out the first update to our Super 16s. These team "rankings" aren't a standard Top 25, but rather an effort to predict what everyone is striving for: state tournament berths. Instead of going down a rabbit hole by attempting to order teams from various parts of the state who play against vastly different levels of competition (note: strength of schedule is taken into account), we are going to try to compare apples to apples a bit more. Each update, we will present the schools we think are in the best position to earn state tournament berths out of their respective districts. Below are our predictions, in bracket order, for how we see the PIAA class AA state tournament shaping up. A Watch List for each district is also included, with the teams on it absolutely in the mix to make the March to Medlar.

1. X-Y under "Berth" = [District]-[Bid]. For example, 7-2 is the runner-up from District VII.
2. If multiple districts are listed in one box, those districts will form a sub-regional to determine that bid.

2016 PIAA Class AA Super 16
Berth School Record Notes
12-1 Neumann-Goretti 3-3 Attrition in the line-up has limited last year's state runner-up to a lower than expected offensive output, but we still don't see another school in this district that will challenge them for this bid.
3-2 Camp Hill 4-3 Lions are holding their own in a strong, predominantly 3A division. Three losses have been in close games against 3A schools with an aggregate 16-5 record. This team will be battle-tested come the post-season.
2-1 Lakeland 4-2 No one has really stepped up to take a firm hold on this spot, but the Chiefs have consistently beaten the teams they should beat and their only losses are against 3A schools.
4-1 Loyalsock Township 6-1 Despite a significant talent drain, the Lancers continue to rule the roost in this district, with their only loss coming against 4A Williamsport Area. Have wins over other contenders Hughesville and Mount Carmel Area.
1-1 Springfield Township 1-5 Ignore the record (for now), as we've seen this movie before from the Spartans. Not unheard of for them to go to state w/ a sub-.500 record. Every game this team has played (and will play going forward) is against a 3A or 4A school, and they have been competitive in most of them.
12-2 MaST Community Charter 2-3 Record doesn't look great, but three losses are all defensible, as they came against 4A Father Judge, plus a couple of District I powers in 3A Holy Ghost Prep and 2A Devon Prep.
3-1 Lancaster Catholic 6-1 Crusaders have made a mockery of their schedule so far, outscoring opponents 85-6, with the only loss coming in extra innings at the hands of reigning district 4A champ Hempfield.
11-1 North Schuylkill 8-1 Only loss is vs an out-of-state team. Dominated the last two schools to win the district 3A title by combined score of 15-0 in two games. Talented senior LHP trio has combined for 49.2 IP, 34 H, 22 BB, 58 K.
Philipsburg-Osceola 7-0 The Mounties are rolling, having outscored their opponents 65-5, including an emphatic 11-0 win over perennial contender Central.
7-3 Keystone Oaks
Have taken care of business in their section so far, with huge section game against Seton-La Salle Catholic on Monday. Both losses are to quality 3A opponents whose combined record is 14-3.
10-1 Franklin Area 5-1 As per usual, the District X schedule gives us a limited number of games to go on early in the year. They preseason favorite has performed as expected, with four of six games so far against 3A schools.
7-2 Neshannock 7-2 Defending state champs were rolling again, outscoring opponents 51-13, before have the breaks slammed on them by section rival Riverside last week. Rematch scheduled for April 29.
7-1 Riverside 9-1 An emphatic 10-2 win over defending state champ Neshannock jumps the Panthers to the top WPIAL seed for the time being. Have outscored opponents 72-14, including a win over 3A contender Blackhawk.
6-2 Mount Union Area
While the Trojans haven't played the toughest schedule, it's hard to argue with outscoring opponents 86-9 and only giving up more than one run once.
Cranberry Area 3-0 Three games played in nearly a month; welcome to life in northwest PA. This will be a three-horse race all season with the schools on the Watch List below.
10-2 Fairview 5-0 Hasn't been tested yet, winning by a combined score of 65-3.

Watch List
District I: Devon Prep, New Hope-Solebury
District II: Hanover Area, Northwest Area, Holy Redeemer
District III: Brandywine Heights, Oley Valley, Delone Catholic
District IV: Hughesville, Mount Carmel Area
Sub-Region V/VI: Central, Forest Hills, Richland, Bishop McCort Catholic, Penn Cambria
District VII: Quaker Valley, Brownsville Area, Seton-La Salle
Sub-Region VIII/IX: Moniteau, Karns City
District X: Sharon, Reynolds
District XI: Schuylkill Haven Area, Notre Dame Green Pond
District XII: Science Leadership Academy, Prep Charter

Previous PA Super 16 News

4/17 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PAISAA Fab Four (mid-April update)
3/24 - PIAA Class AAAA Preseason Super 16
3/23 - PIAA Class AAA Preseason Super 16
3/22 - PIAA Class AA Preseason Super 16
3/21 - PIAA Class A Preseason Super 16
3/20 - PAISAA Preseason Fab Four