MLB Draft Review: AL Central

Continuing with the AL Central, here's an analytical look at how the 2015-2017 draft classes are shaping up using WAR (WAR Defined). Among all MLB teams the Indians rank 3rd in current ROI, but the AL Central also has clubs who rank 27th, 28th and 29th making it last of the six divisions. All references to a prospect’s overall MLB ranking or ranking within the organization is per MLB Pipeline.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Scouting Director Nick Hostetler)
2015 (list): 1st Round  8th Overall Carson Fulmer. Current WAR: -0.8
Individual WAR Leader: Danny Mendick, 22nd Round. Current WAR: 0.3
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.3*
MLers to Date: 3 (Fulmer, Seby Zavala, Mendick)
Signing Bonuses: $5.98M

2016 (list): 1st Round  17th Overall Zack Collins. Current WAR: -0.2
                                         26th Overall Zack Burdi. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Collins
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 2 (Collins, Ian Hamilton)
Signing Bonuses: $10.06M

2017 (list): 1st Round  11th Overall Jake Burger Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $8.78M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 0.3*   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $24.82M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $82.7M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 29th overall)

SUMMARY: Barring a major turnaround by Fulmer who is nearly 100 innings into his ML career and performing below replacement level, the 2015 class looks like a near total loss on a $6M investment. The Sox selection of a pair of Zacks with their top picks in 2016 has also resulted in little return to date, but there is depth with Collins (No. 10 in White Sox system), Burdi (No. 23), 2nd Rounder Alec Hansen (No. 27), 5th Rounder Jimmy Lambert (No. 18), 7th Rounder Bernardo Flores (No. 28) and 11th Rounder Hamilton (No. 20), giving this class hope for future returns. The outlook for the 2017 draft doesn’t look exceptional as Burger tore his left Achilles tendon for the second time and has not played since his draft year. 2017 2nd rounder Gavin Sheets ranks No. 13 in the Sox system while 3rd rounder Luis Gonzalez ranks No. 12 and 5th rounder Tyler Johnson comes in at No. 19.

CLEVELAND INDIANS (Scouting Director Brad Grant)
2015 (list): 1st Round  17th Overall Brady Aiken Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Sam Haggerty, 24th Round. Current WAR: -0.1
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (Haggerty)
Signing Bonuses: $8.46M

2016 (list): 1st Round  14th Overall Will Benson. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Shane Bieber, 4th Round. Current WAR: 6.0
2016 Draft Totals:WAR: 9.5
MLers to Date: 3 (Aaron Civale, Bieber, Zach Plesac)
Signing Bonuses: $8.93M

2017 (list): 1st Round  NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: James Karinchak, 9th Round. Current WAR: 0.1
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.1

MLers to Date: 1 (Karinchak)
Signing Bonuses: $5.8M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 9.6*   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $23.19M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $2.42M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 3rd overall)

SUMMARY: After being selected 1st overall in 2014 by Houston and not signing, Aiken was a well-known risk as the Tribe’s first pick in 2015. He has yet to make it out of A-ball, missing all of 2018 while regrouping from a season long struggle in 2017 and recent reports have indicated he may again take some time away from the diamond in 2020. However, 2015 2nd Rounder Triston McKenzie is ranked as the No. 79 prospect in baseball, giving this draft class a strong ray of hope for future returns. Despite the hitting struggles of 1st rounder Benson (.212 pro career batting average) and analytics driven 2nd round pick Logan Ice (.206 pro career batting average), a potential franchise altering draft is building from the Tribe's efforts in 2016. It all starts with All-Star Game MVP Bieber who has already accumulated 6.0 WAR in his ML career. Additionally selected in 2016 was the current No. 37 overall prospect in MLB Nolan Jones, 3rd rounder Civale and 12th rounder Plesac. Also, 5th rounder Conner Capel was traded to St Louis in 2018 and now ranks as their No. 24 prospect while 10th rounder Samad Taylor was traded to Toronto in 2017 and checks in as their No. 26 prospect, giving this draft class great depth and an excellent chance for an avalanche of ML production. 2017 3rd rounder Tyler Freeman checks in at the No. 97 prospect in MLB while other members of this draft class ranked in the organization’s Top 30 include Karinchak (No. 21) and 4th rounder Ernie Clement(No. 25).

DETROIT TIGERS (Scouting Director David Chadd 2015-16, Scott Pleis 2017)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 22nd Overall Beau Burrows. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Tyler Alexander, 2nd Round. Current WAR: 1.0
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 1.5*
MLers to Date: 5 (Christin Stewart, Alexander, Drew Smith, Matt Hall, Kyle Dowdy)
Signing Bonuses: $7.61M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 9th Overall Matt Manning. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: John Schreiber, 15th Round. Current WAR: 0.0
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 2 (Bryan Garcia, Schreiber)
Signing Bonuses: $6.71M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 18th Overall Alex Faedo. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $8.30M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 1.5*    MLers: 7   BONUSES: $22.62M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $15.1M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 19th overall)

SUMMARY: The 2015 draft class looks solid, but not spectacular, as five picks have already reached the Major Leagues and 1st rounder Burrows ranks as the No. 14 prospect in the Tiger’s system. 2nd rounder Alexander had a successful 2019 MLB debut with eight starts and 53.2 IP. Now a New York Met, 3rd rounder Drew Smith debuted in 2018 with 27 games and a 3.54 ERA out of the pen before missing all of 2019 with TJ surgery. Without a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2016, the Tigers led off with high ceiling prep pitcher Manning who is now ranked as the No. 27 overall prospect in MLB and followed that pick in the 4th round with college stalwart Kyle Funkhouser who ranks No. 19 in the Tiger system. Faedo remains a solid selection to leadoff the Tigers 2017 draft, he now ranks as their No. 9 prospect, but 2nd round JC bat Reynaldo Rivera has been a total bust, and was suspended 100 games for PEDs. The remainder of the Tigers 2017 draft picks have not developed and none rank in the organization's Top 30.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (Scouting Director Lonnie Goldberg)
2015 (list): 1st Round 21st Overall Ashe Russell. Current WAR: 0.0
                                       33rd Overall Nolan Watson. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Nick Dini, 14th Round. Current WAR 0.1
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.1*
MLers to Date: 2 (Josh Staumont, Dini)
Signing Bonuses: $7.99M

2016 (list): 1st Round NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: Nicky Lopez, 5th Round. Current WAR: 0.2
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.3*
MLers to Date: 3 (Lopez, Richard Lovelady, David McKay)
Signing Bonuses: $5.05M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 14th Overall Nick Pratto. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $10.38M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 0.4   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $23.42M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $58.55M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 27th overall)

SUMMARY: The Royals had typically leaned college with their top pick (2010-Colon, 2012-Zimmer, 2013-Dozier, 2014-Finnegan) which made their two 2015 1st round picks of Indiana high school righties, Russell and Watson, a big surprise. They followed those picks with another prep arm in the 4th round (Garrett Davila), creating huge risk in their draft portfolio. Russell’s questionable makeup and command concerns at the time played out to the worst case in pro ball, while Watson and Davila have not developed above A-ball. 14th round college senior Dini reaching the Big Leagues is a nice story from what is looking like a poor 2015 draft. 2016 4th Rounder Khalil Lee continues to look like an astute pick, he’s the current No. 4 prospect in the Royals system. However, little else has emerged from that draft class other than 5th rounder Lopez who played 103 games for the big club in 2019 and has solid defensive value, but produced just a 59 OPS+ (league average is 100). With four of the top 90 overall picks in 2017, the Royals once again went the high risk, high return route with all four of those top picks coming from the HS or JC ranks. And, so far the results have been good. Three of the four rank among their Top 30 prospects, while the fourth (Evan Steele) could easily be included as well. Overall, the 2015-17 drafts have produced five MLers, zero current MLB Top 100 prospects and a lowly 0.4 total WAR, but Lee and the 2017 draft offer hope of a turnaround from the current No. 27 ROI ranking.

MINNESOTA TWINS (Scouting Director Deron Johnson 2015-16, Sean Johnson 2017)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 6th Overall Tyler Jay. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Cody Stashak, 13th Round. Current WAR: 0.4
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.4*
MLers to Date: 4 (LaMonte Wade, Stashak,Jaylin Davis, Andrew Vasquez)
Signing Bonuses Total: $7.15M

2016 (list): 1st Round  15th Overall Alex Kiriloff. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Sean Poppen, 19th Round. Current WAR: -0.1
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (Poppen)
Signing Bonuses: $8.53M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 1st Overall Royce Lewis. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
Total MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $15.02M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 0.4*   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $30.7M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $76.75M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 28th overall)

SUMMARY: The 2015 draft was a down year for talent and the Twins did no better than the industry, missing on 1st rounder Jay and not signing 2nd rounder Kyle Cody. However 3rd round prep Travis Blankenhorn has developed into the Twins No. 23 ranked prospect giving this draft class some hope of return from their $7M+ investment. With four of the first 74 picks in the 2016 draft the Twins went max risk/high return by selecting preps with all four. Although there has been little return to date with just one MLer, Kiriloff is a masher who has developed into the No. 15 overall prospect in baseball and 4th rounder Jordan Balazovic ranks No. 76. Fellow 2016 draftees Ben Rortvedt (2nd round), Jose Miranda (2nd round), Akil Baddoo (2nd round) and Griffin Jax (3rd round) and all rank within the organizations Top 30, providing valuable depth and setting up 2016 to become a banner draft. 1st overall pick in 2017 Royce Lewis continues to develop and is currently the No. 9 ranked prospect in baseball, while Brent Rooker (1st round comp) and Blayne Enlow (3rd round) both rank within the organization’s top 12 prospects.

*Negative WAR is not used to calculate total WAR. For any WAR value less than zero, 0.0 is used to calculate a team’s total WAR.