MLB Draft Review: AL East

Continuing with the AL East, here's an analytical look at how the 2015-2017 draft classes are shaping up using WAR (WAR Defined). The East is a polarizing division with two of the top 10 ROIs, as well as two of the bottom five, including the least productive in MLB. All references to a prospect’s overall MLB ranking or ranking within the organization is per MLB Pipeline.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Scouting Director Gary Rajsich)
2015 (list): 1st Round  25th Overall DJ Stewart. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Stewart
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 3 (Stewart, Ryan Meisinger, Cedric Mullins)
Signing Bonuses: $7.03M

2016 (list): 1st Round  27th Overall. Cody Sedlock. Current WAR 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Austin Hays, 3rd Round. Current WAR: 0.2
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.2
MLers to Date: 1 (Hays)
Signing Bonuses: $8.21M

2017 (list): 1st Round  21st Overall. DL Hall. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $8.18M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 0.2   MLers: 4   BONUSES: $23.42M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $117.1M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 30th overall)

SUMMARY: The O’s rank last among all 30 MLB clubs in current ROI, and it’s not even close. The numbers speak for themselves with near zero ML contributions to date. However, the future is bright with Ryan Mountcastle (selected 36th overall in 2015) and 2017 1st rounder DL Hall offering everyday potential as both are currently considered Top 100 prospects by MLB.com. Also, the trio of arms in Keegan Akin (2016 2nd round), Zac Lowther (2017 2nd round) and Mike Baumann (2017 3rd round) give the O’s some upper level arms who are nearing MLB readiness to go along with 2016 3rd rounder Hays, who was the first from his draft class to reach the Major Leagues as a September callup in 2017. Hays returned to Baltimore at the end of 2019 with a solid showing, producing 0.7 WAR over 21 September contests. He has the potential to be an everyday regular provided he can stay healthy and build on his recent late-season success. He is currently ranked as the No. 6 prospect in the O’s system.

BOSTON RED SOX (Scouting Director Mike Rikard)
2015 (list): 1st Round  7th Overall Andrew Benintendi. Current WAR: 8.7
Individual WAR Leader: Benintendi
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 9.5*
MLers to Date: 6 (Benintendi, Travis Lakins, Ben Taylor, Logan Allen, Bobby Poyner, Trevor Kelley)
Signing Bonuses: $7.60M

2016 (list): 1st Round  12th Overall Jay Groome. Current WAR 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Shaun Anderson, 3rd Round. Current WAR: -0.5
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 3 (Anderson, Mike Shawaryn, Stephen Nogosek)
Signing Bonuses: $7.95M

2017 (list): 1st Round  24th Overall. Tanner Houck. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $7.47M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 9.5   MLers: 9   BONUSES: $23.02M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $2.42M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 4th overall)

SUMMARY: In a down year for draft talent, the Sox struck gold with Benintendi in 2015, then followed it up with several others who have reached the ML, including 8th rounder Logan Allen. Allen was part of the Craig Kimbrel trade with San Diego and made his MLB debut for Cleveland this past summer. He ranks as the No. 4 prospect in the Indians system. The BoSox 2016 draft also has the potential to produce similar high returns. The 1st round selection of Groome is on hold while he recovers from TJ surgery. 2nd rounder C.J. Chatham has progressed to become the No. 9 prospect in the organization. 3rd rounder Anderson (now with SF) made 16 starts and the mound during his 2019 big league rookie season. 4th rounder Bobby Dalbec is progressing well, overcoming some front office analytical predictions during his draft year, and is the No. 2 prospect in the system. The Sox continued to hit on their picks with both 5th rounder Shawaryn and 6th rounder Nogosek also appearing in the ML this past summer. At the moment their 2017 draft looks a little light with just Houck and 16th rounder Cutter Crawford ranking in the top 30 of the organization, but the overall three-year ROI is filled with current ML production with high likelihood for more. It should remain one of the best in baseball.

NEW YORK YANKEES (Scouting Director Damon Oppenheimer)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 16th Overall James Kaprielian. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Chance Adams, 5th Round. Current WAR: -0.9
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 3 (Adams, Josh Rogers, Cody Carroll)
Signing Bonuses: $9.44M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 18th Overall Blake Rutherford. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Nick Solak, 2nd Round. Current WAR: 0.5
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.5
MLers to Date: 2 (Solak, Phillip Diehl)
Signing Bonuses: $7.12M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 16th Overall Clarke Schmidt. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $8.13M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 0.5   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $24.69M 

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $49.38M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 25th overall)

SUMMARY: The Yankees picked in the middle of the first round (and every round) in all three years of this analysis. Surprisingly, Solak is the only pick from those three years who, to date, has produced a career WAR greater than zero. There is also very little in the system as the Yanks have no Top 100 MLB prospects who were selected from the amateur draft during 2015-17. 2017 1st rounder Schmidt ranks the highest at No. 5 in the Yankees system and 2016 1st rounder Rutherford (traded with other prospects for Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson in 2017) comes in at No. 9 with the ChiSox. In particular, the 2015 draft has produced little and offers little hope for more than ML replacement level value, although 1st rounder Kaprielian returned in 2019 to throw almost 70 innings in the Oakland system after missing all of the 2017 and 2018 seasons with arm injuries. Overall, it’s too much to expect the Yanks to draft every year like they did in 2006 (current total 69.9 WAR), but so far the 2015-17 drafts look to be on the lean side.

TAMPA BAY RAYS (Scouting Director RJ Harrison 2015, Rob Metzler 2016-17)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 13th Overall Garrett Whitley. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Brandon Lowe, 3rd Round. Current WAR 3.6
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 3.8
MLers to Date: 2 (Lowe, Ian Gibaut)
Signing Bonuses: $7.95M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 13th Overall Josh Lowe. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Nate Lowe, 13th Round. Current WAR: 0.6
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.6*
MLers to Date: 2 (N Lowe, Jake Fraley)
Signing Bonuses: $7.77M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 4th Overall Brendan McKay. Current WAR: -0.1
Individual WAR Leader: McKay
2017 Draft Total: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (McKay)
Signing Bonuses: $11.99M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 4.4   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $27.71M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $6.30M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 13th overall)

SUMMARY: The Rays have dominated in Lowe picks with Brandon and Nate contributing at the ML level, and Josh as the No. 11 prospect in their deep system. McKay is a Top 100 MLB prospect, coming in at No. 12. 2015 7th rounder Jake Croneworth was recently traded to San Diego and is the verge of producing in the big leagues as both a pitcher and a position player. 2017 selections Taylor Walls (3rd round), Drew Strotman (4th round) and Riley O’Brien (8th round) provide depth to the minor league system as all rank in the top 25 of the organization. Overall, the best is yet to come from this group and their current No. 13 ROI ranking will likely climb in the near future.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Scouting Director Brian Parker 2015-16, Steve Sanders 2017)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 29th Overall Jon Harris. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Travis Bergen, 7th Round. Current WAR: -0.1
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (Bergen)
Signing Bonuses Total: $4.85M

2016 (list): 1st Round  21st Overall TJ Zeuch. Current WAR: 0.3
Individual WAR Leader: Cavan Biggio, 5th Round. Current WAR: 2.8
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 5.2
MLers to Date: 3 (Zeuch, Bo Bichette, Biggio)
Signing Bonuses: $7.87M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 22nd Overall Logan Warmouth. Current WAR: 0.0
                                          28th Overall Nate Pearson. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
Total MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $9.78M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 5.2*   MLers: 4   BONUSES: $22.5M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $4.33M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 9th overall)

SUMMARY: When the Jays did not sign their 2nd round pick from 2015 (Brady Singer) it was just the start of what now can be considered a lost draft. With only one big leaguer produced to date, a struggling 1st round pick and zero prospects from that draft in their current Organizational Top 30, 2015 wasn't a good draft year for Toronto. However, the Jays turned things around in a big way with a potential franchise changing 2016 draft based upon the selections of Bichette and Biggio alone. They even hit on their 39th rounder from that year in Chavez Young, who currently ranks No. 21 in the organization. With a new Scouting Director and strategy in 2017, the jury is still out as their top pick Warmouth hasn’t panned out as expected, but the 100+ mph heater of MLB’s No. 10 overall prospect Pearson and the astute selection of Kevin Smith (4th round) gives it potential for a solid return.

*Negative WAR is not used to calculate total WAR. For any WAR value less than zero, 0.0 is used to calculate a team’s total WAR.

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