MLB Draft Review: 2015-2017

Which teams struck gold during the 2015-2017 drafts? Who found rocks?

Rather than taking a subjective approach to ranking organizational draft classes, we've decided to look back at some recent drafts through an analytical lens. We have ranked each team by the amount of WAR each draft has produced to this point. The definition of WAR can be found here (WAR Defined). Loosely defined, it is an equalizing statistic that places an overall value derived from all areas of the game (offense, defense, base running, pitching) for both position players and pitchers. It is also adjusted by position, ballparks and over the periods of juiced and dead ball eras.

While each Major League organization utilizes its own proprietary calculation for WAR, there are two websites that do as well -- Baseball-Reference.com and Fangraphs.com. For purposes of this exercise, we utilized the calculations provided by Baseball-Reference.com.

We will have team-by-team analyses later this week and into next.

NL Central- Dec 3
NL East- Dec 4
NL West- Dec 5

AL Central- Dec 10
AL East- Dec 11
AL West- Dec 12

RETURN ON INVESTMENT (BANG FOR THE BUCK): Our first ranking is a measure of how efficiently an organization has spent its bonus dollars. Anyone can just spend money on draft picks, but the best clubs scout efficiently and develop their prospects in a manner that allows them to fully leverage every last dollar spent to maximize return (production by the players at the Major League level).

It’s important to keep in mind that this is just one measure and does not necessarily reflect how well, overall, these teams have drafted. For example, some clubs have “hit” on just one player so far (Cubs, Ian Happ) and are living off of his returns. Others, like the Dodgers in 2016, seem to have hit on nearly every top pick, but the dividends have just now started to roll in. Still other clubs leaned towards prep selections in the early rounds and are still waiting for their development to pay off in terms of Major League contributions.

The below table calculates the total number of WAR for the players selected by each organization then displays the amount of draft dollars spent per 1 WAR. Note, this is a rate calculation based on what has been produced thus far from these draftees, so teams whose draftees have produced less than one WAR have a $/WAR well above the actual dollars paid out in bonuses. This table should be viewed as an indicator of how much money each organization spent in order to produce the same production value for these classes.

TOTAL SIGNING BONUSES (2015-17): Who had the picks and spent the cash? The below table lays out actual investment through draft bonuses. Because the current system has a soft cap in place for spending, and pool allotments distributed to each team are based on the picks available to each team, this should be viewed as an indicator of which teams had the greatest opportunity to leverage the draft from 2015 through 2017.

TOTAL TEAM WAR (2015-17): Regardless of bonus money spent or draft slots for each team (picking towards the front or back of each round), which clubs have produced the most value from their draft picks to this point? The below table lays out the raw production from each club’s aggregate draft classes from 2015 through 2017. 

MOST Major Leaguers: Similar to Total Team WAR in the table directly above, the below table focuses on raw counting stats separated from dollars spent or number of picks alloted to the applicable clubs (and whether those picks were in the front or back of each draft round). In this case, we tally the total number of draftees from the 2015 through 2017 draft classes that have reached the Major Leagues to this point.

WAR LEADERS BY CLASS YEAR: Individual player rankings of total WAR by year for players drafted in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

TOP 10 Cumulative WAR by Player (2015 draftees):
1- Alex Bregman, Astros: 20.8 WAR
2- Paul DeJong, Cardinals: 10.6
3- Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: 8.7
4- Harrison Bader, Cardinals: 5.9
5- David Fletcher, Angels: 5.7
T6- Walker Buehler, Dodgers: 5.5
T6- Mike Soroka, Braves: 5.5
8- Dansby Swanson, D’Backs: 3.7
9- Brandon Lowe, Rays: 3.6
10- Ian Happ, Cubs: 3.5

TOP 10 Cumulative WAR by Player (2016 draftees):
1- Shane Bieber, Indians: 6.0 WAR
2- Pete Alonso, Mets: 5.0
3- Bryan Reynolds, Giants: 3.9
4- Tommy Edman, Cardinals: 3.8
5- Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays: 2.8
6- Zac Gallen, Cardinals: 2.5
7- Dakota Hudson, Cardinals: 2.4
T8- Bo Bichette, Blue Jays: 2.1
T8- Joey Luchessi, Padres: 2.1
10- Will Smith, Dodgers: 1.6

TOP 3 Cumulative WAR by Player (2017 draftees):
1- Keston Huira, Brewers: 2.1 WAR
2- Adam Haseley, Phillies: 1.7
3- Griffin Canning, Angels: 1.1

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