MLB Draft Review: NL East

Continuing with the NL East, here's an analytical look at how the 2015-2017 draft classes are shaping up using WAR (WAR Defined). All references to a prospect’s overall MLB ranking or ranking within the organization is per MLB Pipeline.

ATLANTA BRAVES (Scouting Director Brian Bridges)
2015 (list): 1st Round  14th Overall Kolby Allard. Current WAR: 0.6
                                        28th Overall Mike Soroka. Current WAR: 5.5
Individual WAR Leader: Soroka
2015 Draft Totals:  WAR: 6.5
MLers to Date: 5 (Allard, Soroka, Austin Riley, A.J. Minter, Evan Phillips)
Signing Bonuses: $12.66M

2016 (list): 1st Round  3rd Overall. Ian Anderson. Current WAR 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Jeremy Walker, 5th Round. Current WAR: 0.2
2016 Draft Totals:  WAR: 0.2
MLers to Date: 2 (Bryse Wilson, Walker)
Signing Bonuses: $15.52M

2017 (list): 1st Round  5th Overall. Kyle Wright. Current WAR: -0.6
Individual WAR Leader: Wright
2017 Draft Totals:  WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1
Signing Bonuses: $11.50M

TOTALS (2015-17):   WAR: 6.7    MLers: 8    BONUSES: $39.68M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $5.9M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 12th overall)

SUMMARY: At nearly $40M the Braves spent the most in baseball on signing bonuses during this time period. As a result they’ve loaded up their farm system and now boast three of the top 35 prospects in MLB which include Drew Waters (No. 23), Anderson (No. 31) and Wright (No. 35). The payoff has also begun at the ML level with Soroka and a total of eight MLers to date. Barring numerous injuries, their three-year run of selecting mostly high upside arms with their top picks looks like an excellent strategy, and one that should result in playoff appearances for many years to come.

MIAMI MARLINS (Scouting Director Stan Meek)
2015 (list): 1st Round  12th Overall Josh Naylor. Current WAR: 0.1
Individual WAR Leader: Chris Paddack, 8th Round. Current WAR: 2.6
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 2.9
MLers to Date: 4 (Naylor, Paddack, Kyle Keller, Ben Meyer)
Signing Bonuses: $7.55M

2016 (list): 1st Round  7th Overall Braxton Garrett. Current WAR 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2016 Draft Totals:  WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 1 (Mike King)
Signing Bonuses: $7.22M

2017 (list): 1st Round  13th Overall. Trevor Rogers. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals:  WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $10.68M

TOTALS (2015-17):   WAR: 2.9    MLers: 5    BONUSES: $25.46M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $8.8M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 14th overall)

SUMMARY: With a 2.9 total WAR and five MLers so far, this group has a chance to improve more than most with Paddack (traded straight up for Fernando Rodney in 2016) excelling in San Diego, as well as Naylor (also traded in 2016 to SD in a separate trade) who enjoyed a solid offensive MLB debut in 2019. A now healthy Garrett and the continued development of Rogers could accelerate things in a hurry for the Fish.

NEW YORK METS (Scouting Director Tommy Tanous 2015-16, Marc Tramuta 2017)
2015 (list): 1st Round, NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: Kevin Kaczmarksi, 9th Round. Current WAR: -0.1
2015 Draft Totals:  WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 2 (Kaczmarski, PJ Conlon)
Signing Bonuses: $4.27M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 19th Overall Justin Dunn. Current WAR: 0.2
Individual WAR Leader: Pete Alonso, 2nd Round. Current WAR: 5.0
2016 Draft Totals:  WAR: 5.3
MLers to Date: 3 (Dunn, Anthony Kay, Alonso)
Signing Bonuses: $8.65M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 20th Overall David Peterson. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals:  WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $7.89M

TOTALS (2015-17):   WAR: 5.3    MLers: 5    BONUSES: $20.81M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $3.9M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 7th overall)

SUMMARY: On the downside, 2015 looks like a bust other than the big arm of lefty Thomas Szapucki who was recently added to the 40-man roster, but he will need to stay healthy to fulfill his potential. However, it doesn’t get much better than 2016 led by 2nd rounder Alonso who looks like a franchise-type talent and with Dunn (now with SEA) and Kay (now with TOR) beginning to emerge in the Major Leagues. Still too early to completely judge the 2017 class, but it has the potential for impact with Peterson and 2nd round prep Mark Vientos.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Scouting Director Johnny Almaraz)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 10th Overall Cornelius Randolph. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Scott Kingery, 2nd Round. Current WAR 1.6
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 1.6
MLers to Date: 1 (Kingery)
Signing Bonuses: $7.65M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 1st Overall Mickey Moniak. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Cole Irvin, 6th Round. Current WAR: -0.3
2016 Draft Totals:  WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (Irvin)
Signing Bonuses: $14.99M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 8th Overall Adam Haseley. Current WAR: 1.7
Individual WAR Leader: Haseley
2017 Draft Total: WAR: 1.7
MLers to Date: 1 (Haseley)
Signing Bonuses: $10.79M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 3.3    MLers: 3    BONUSES: $33.4M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $10.1M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 15th overall)

SUMMARY: The Phillies shelled out the fifth most bonus dollars during this period, yet have produced the second least number of MLers (3) with only the Cubs trailing them with one. Randolph can now officially be considered a bust after the Phils failed to protect on him on their 40-man roster this winter. With the jury still out on 2016 1st overall pick Moniak (No. 8 Phillies prospect) and the injury history of $3.5M 2nd rounder Kevin Gowdy (No. 26 Phillies prospect), there’s been no impact talent emerge from the 2016 draft class which saw the Phils shell out nearly $15M in bonuses. However, the good news is that Haseley, to date, has produced the most WAR of any 2017 draft pick not named Keston Huira, Kingery looks to have everyday ML value (and was paid as such with an at the time unprecedented, 6 year/$24M contract) and 2017 2nd rounder Spencer Howard is currently ranked the No. 88 overall prospect in MLB. 

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (Scouting Director Kris Kline)
2015 (list): 1st Round, NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: Koda Glover, 8th Round. Current WAR: 0.2
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.4
MLers to Date: 4 (Andrew Stevenson, Taylor Hearn, Glover, Taylor Guilbeau)
Signing Bonuses Total: $4.98M

2016 (list): 1st Round  28th Overall Carter Kieboom. Current WAR: -1.0
                                          29th Overall Dane Dunning. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Jesus Luzardo, 3rd Round. Current WAR: 0.5
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.7
MLers to Date: 5 (Kieboom, Sheldon Neuse, Luzardo, Tres Barrera, Jake Noll)
Signing Bonuses: $8.72M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 25th Overall. Seth Romero. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
Total MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $6.65M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 1.1    MLers: 9    BONUSES: $20.35M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $18.5M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 20th overall)

SUMMARY: A remarkable nine draftees have already seen time in the Major Leagues. 2016 3rd rounder Jesus Luzardo is an impact talent (ranked No. 18 overall in MLB), but was traded to Oakland in 2017 as part of the Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson deal. Kieboom also has impact potential with his bat, and he's currently ranked No. 20 overall in MLB. Dunning (traded to CWS as part of the Adam Eaton deal) has mid-rotation potential, but he had TJ surgery in 2018 and missed all of the 2019 season. A couple nice late round picks in 2016 include Sterling Sharpe (22nd round) and Ben Braymer (18th round). Both pitchers currently rank in the organization's top 15 prospects. Overall, the arrow is pointing up for this three-year period of picks as it offers a mix of high upside prospects and depth. Unfortunately, much of that talent is no longer in their system, a tradeoff that the World Series Champion Nationals are happy to have.

NOTE: *Negative WAR is not used to calculate total WAR. For any WAR value less than zero, 0.0 is used to calculate a team’s total WAR.