MLB Draft Review: NL West

Continuing with the NL West, here's an analytical look at how the 2015-2017 draft classes are shaping up using WAR (WAR Defined). All references to a prospect’s overall MLB ranking or ranking within the organization is per MLB Pipeline. 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Scouting Director Deric Ladnier)
2015 (list): 1st Round  1st Overall Dansby Swanson. Current WAR: 3.7
Individual WAR Leader: Swanson
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 4.2
MLers to Date: 4 (Swanson, Alex Young, Taylor Clarke, Ryan Burr)
Signing Bonuses: $12.27M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 39th Overall. Anfernee Grier. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Kevin Ginkel, 22nd Round. Current WAR: 0.7
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 1.1
MLers to Date: 3 (Jon Duplantier, Colin Poche, Ginkel)
Signing Bonuses: $6.12M

2017 (list): 1st Round  7th Overall Pavin Smith. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $11.28M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 5.3    MLers: 7    BONUSES: $29.67M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $5.6M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 10th overall)

SUMMARY: The D’Backs hold the No. 10 overall spot in the ROI rankings thanks mostly to ML production outside of their organization. Swanson was traded with other prospects to Atlanta for Shelby Miller six months after his selection as the No. 1 overall in 2015. They hung onto their 2nd rounder Young, who made his MLB debut in 2019 and impressed with seven wins in 15 starts on the mound. The development of their first two picks in 2016 (Grier and Andy Yerzy) has not gone as hoped, but the trio of arms in Duplantier, Poche and Ginkel all made their MLB debut in 2019. Ditto for the development of 2017 top picks as 1st rounder Smith hasn’t gotten to his raw power (23 home runs in 1233 minor league PAs) and 2nd rounder Drew Ellis has struggled with the bat (.238 career average). However, 3rd rounder Daulton Varsho has turned into the No. 100 prospect in MLB (undervalued in this writer’s opinion) and is likely to make his ML debut in 2020. Historically, the D’Backs have found their greatest success in the Central U.S. (2009-A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Chase Anderson, 2010- Adam Eaton, 2011- Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin) and they continued to show that acumen with the selections of Swanson, Duplantier, Young, Poche, and Varsho from 2015-17. They seem best served to stay that course.

COLORADO ROCKIES (Scouting Director Bill Schmidt)
2015 (list): 1st Round  3rd Overall Brendan Rodgers. Current WAR: -0.8
Individual WAR Leader: Sam Hilliard, 16th Round. Current WAR: 0.6
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.6*
MLers to Date: 3 (Rodgers, Peter Lambert, Hilliard)
Signing Bonuses: $14.42M

2016 (list): 1st Round  4th Overall. Riley Pint Current WAR 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: J.D. Hammer, 24th Round. Current WAR 0.3
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.5
MLers to Date: 3 (Garrett Hampson, Hammer, Rico Garcia)
Signing Bonuses: $11.65M

2017 (list): 1st Round, NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $5.54M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 1.1*   MLers: 6   BONUSES: $31.61M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $28.7M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 23rd overall)

SUMMARY: The Rocks spent a lot of cash from 2015-2016 ($26M+) and $31.6M during this three year analysis, yet have very little present ML production to show for it. 2015 16th rounder Hilliard has returned over half of the Rockies total WAR by himself with 0.6 during his brief 27-game ML debut in 2019. The selection of high school picks with their first selection each year hasn’t netted any positive WAR to this point, although Rodgers (No. 14 overall prospect in MLB) who struggled in his 2019 ML debut, Ryan Vilade (2017 top pick and No. 6 Rockies prospect) and 2016 4th rounder Colton Welker(No. 3 Rockies prospect) could change that in the near future.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Scouting Director Billy Gasparino)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 24th Overall. Walker Buehler. Current WAR 5.5
Individual WAR Leader: Buehler
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 6.4
MLers to Date: 6 (Buehler, Josh Sborz, Willie Calhoun, Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, Kyle Garlick)
Signing Bonuses: $7.36M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 20th Overall Gavin Lux. Current WAR: 0.3
Individual WAR Leader: Will Smith, 2nd Round. Current WAR: 1.6
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 3.5
MLers to Date: 5 (Lux, Smith, Dustin May, Devin Smeltzer, Tony Gonsolin)
Signing Bonuses: $11.27M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 23rd Overall Jeren Kendall. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $8.27M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 9.9    MLers: 11   BONUSES: $26.90M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $2.72M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 5th overall)

SUMMARY: The Dodgers hit on draft picks early and often in 2015, already putting six in the ML from that draft, and it doesn’t get much better than Buehler, a franchise type talent. In 2016 they outscouted the industry with the selections of Lux and Smith in a round earlier than the industry consensus and then added May as an over slot prep in the 3rd Round. All three have developed into potential franchise type talents. Overall, the Dodgers continue to draft and develop as well as anyone in the game. Their 2015-17 ROI currently ranks 5th, but is likely to top the industry in the near future.

SAN DIEGO PADRES (Scouting Director Mark Conner)
2015 (list): 1st Round, NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: Ty France, 34th Round. Current WAR 0.1
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.1*
MLers to Date: 6 (Jacob Nix, Austin Allen, Brett Kennedy, Trey Wingenter, Phil Maton, France)
Signing Bonuses: $4.89M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 8th Overall Cal Quantrill. Current WAR: 0.1
                                        24th Overall Hudson Potts. Current WAR: 0.0
                                        25th Overall Eric Lauer. Current WAR: 0.4 
Individual WAR Leader: Joey Lucchesi, 4th Round. Current WAR: 2.1
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 2.6*
MLers to Date: 4 (Quantrill, Lauer, Lucchesi, David Bednar)
Signing Bonuses: $14.87M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 3rd Overall MacKenzie Gore. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Nick Margevicius, 7th Round. Current WAR: -0.9
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (Margevicius)
Signing Bonuses: $13.70M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 2.7*   MLers: 11   BONUSES: $33.47M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $12.40M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 18th overall)

SUMMARY: Despite not having a 1st round pick, the Pads already have numerous picks from 2015 in the Big Leagues while “only” spending $4.9M. However, none of those selections have currently shown anything more than replacement level value. 2016 was a different story as the Padres had several extra picks and the cash that accompanies them, spending nearly $15M in bonuses. 1st rounder Quantrill was selected while still recovering from TJ surgery, yet was signed for an over slot bonus. The second of three 1st round picks that year, Potts, was over drafted and signed for below slot at $1M, freeing up the cash to sign 3rd rounder Mason Thompson who hasn’t panned out as expected and now ranks as the No. 27 prospect in the organization. Potts has been pushed through the minors, reaching Double-A as a 20 year old and is currently the Padres No. 11 prospect. Their third 1st round pick, Lauer, was viewed as a high floor college lefty and thus far has put together that type of ML career as a backend starter. Also in 2016, Lucchesi was an excellent 4th round pick as an under scouted 23-year old senior from Southeast Missouri State. The 2017 selection of Gore was considered a good one at the time, and looks even better now as he’s risen to the No. 4 overall prospect in MLB while 2nd rounder Luis Campusano checks in at No. 86 overall giving the Padres 2017 draft the potential for impact.

SAN FRANCISO GIANTS (Scouting Director John Barr)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 18th Overall Phil Bickford. Current WAR: 0.0
                                        31st Overall Chris Shaw. Current WAR: -0.7
Individual WAR Leader: Steven Duggar, 6th Round. Current WAR: 1.1
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 1.1*
MLers to Date: 3 (Shaw, Andrew Suarez, Duggar)
Signing Bonuses: $8.87M

2016 (list): 1st Round, NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: Bryan Reynolds, 2nd Round. Current WAR: 3.9
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 3.9
MLers to Date: 2 (Reynolds, Conner Menez)
Signing Bonuses: $4.83M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 19th Overall Heliot Ramos. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $7.87M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 5.0   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $21.57M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $4.31M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 8th overall)

SUMMARY: The Giants picked in the middle (or not at all) in the 1st round each year of this analysis and, as a result, didn’t spend much ($21.57M) which ranks 26th overall. They also haven’t gotten much in return to date, other than 2016 2nd rounder Reynolds who has produced 3.9 of the team’s 5.0 total WAR to this point. 2017 1st rounder Ramos ranks as the No. 50 overall prospect in MLB and the 3rd rounder from that same year, Seth Corry, ranks No. 9 in the Giant's system. Otherwise, little has emerged in the system from the 2015-17 drafts to this point, but astute late round pick Menez (14th round, 2016) made his MLB debut in 2019 and provides some depth as he currently ranks No. 17 in the system. Overall, the Giants current No. 8 ranking in ROI will likely take a tumble in the near future.

*Negative WAR is not used to calculate total WAR. For any WAR value less than zero, 0.0 is used to calculate a team’s total WAR.