Breaking down the results of our 2018-2020 draft boards
December 16, 2024
We recently published our 2025 Draft Board 1.0 and our Mock Draft 1.0. While most other outlets who rank draft prospects utilize the scouting industry consensus to determine their order, our process is tailored around personal, boots-on-the-ground evaluations. We do utilize video analysis with a sprinkle of analytics, but in large our rankings are a reflection of what we see for ourselves.
This process has served us well over the years. Our team has consistently captured an accurate projection of what the prospects will ultimately become at the Major League level.
Below are the Top 10 picks for the 2018, 2019, and 2020 draft classes. To be clear, a prospect’s signability often comes into play and deals are often brokered instead of the talent simply selected in its evaluated order. Furthermore, it is too soon to draw final conclusions of what each of those classes will ultimately produce at the Major League level, but here’s a snapshot of the current look.
2018 PREP BASEBALL DRAFT BOARD VS. ACTUAL DRAFT
Pick |
Player | WAR | |||
1 | Casey Mize | 2.9 | 1 | Casey Mize (DET) | 2.9 |
2 | Brady Singer | 8.9 | 2 | Joey Bart (SFG) | 2.9 |
3 | Matthew Liberatore | -0.5 | 3 | Alec Bohm (PHI) | 3.8 |
4 | Jonathan India | 7.0 | 4 | Nick Madrigal (CWS) | 3.0 |
5 | Nick Madrigal | 3.0 | 5 | Jonathan India (CIN) | 7.0 |
6 | Joey Bart | 2.9 | 6 | Jarred Kelenic (NYM) | 0.5 |
7 | Jarred Kelenic | 0.5 | 7 | Ryan Weathers (SDP) | 1.0 |
8 | Ryan Rolison | 0.0 | 8 | Carter Stewart (ATL) | DNS |
9 | Alec Bohm | 3.8 | 9 | Kyler Murray (OAK) | 0.0 |
10 | Mason Denaburg | 0.0 | 10 | Travis Swaggerty (PIT) | -0.2 |
Our Top-10 WAR: | 29.0 | Actual Top-10 WAR: | 21.1 |
2019 PREP BASEBALL DRAFT BOARD VS. ACTUAL DRAFT
Pick |
Player | WAR | |||
1 | Adley Rutschman | 13.1 | 1 | Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 13.1 |
2 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 14.7 | 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 14.7 |
3 | Andrew Vaughn | 1.1 | 3 | Andrew Vaughn (CWS) | 1.1 |
4 | JJ Bleday | 1.6 | 4 | JJ Bleday (MIA) | 1.6 |
5 | Corbin Carroll | 9.9 | 5 | Riley Greene (DET) | 8.6 |
6 | CJ Abrams | 6.8 | 6 | CJ Abrams (SDP) | 6.8 |
7 | Riley Greene | 8.6 | 7 | Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 3.6 |
8 | Nick Lodolo | 3.6 | 8 | Josh Jung (TEX) | 3.0 |
9 | Bryson Stott | 8.0 | 9 | Shea Langeliers (ATL) | 4.1 |
10 | Shea Langeliers | 4.1 | 10 | Hunter Bishop (SFG) | 0.0 |
Our Top-10 WAR: | 71.5 | Actual Top-10 WAR: | 56.6 |
2020 PREP BASEBALL DRAFT BOARD VS. ACTUAL DRAFT
Pick |
Player | WAR | |||
1 | Spencer Torkelson | -0.3 | 1 | Spencer Torkelson (DET) | -0.3 |
2 | Austin Martin | -1.0 | 2 | Heston Kjerstad (BAL) | 0.5 |
3 | Asa Lacy | 0.0 | 3 | Max Meyer (MIA) | -0.1 |
4 | Max Meyer | -0.1 | 4 | Asa Lacy (KC) | 0.0 |
5 | Emerson Hancock | -0.5 | 5 | Austin Martin (TOR) | -1.0 |
6 | Nick Gonzales | 0.8 | 6 | Emerson Hancock (SEA) | -0.5 |
7 | Zac Veen | 0.0 | 7 | Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.8 |
8 | Ed Howard IV | 0.0 | 8 | Robert Hassell III (SDP) | 0.0 |
9 | Garrett Crochet | 5.9 | 9 | Zac Veen (COL) | 0.0 |
10 | Mick Abel | 0.0 | 10 | Reid Detmers (LAA) | 3.3 |
Our Top-10 WAR: | 6.7 | Actual Top-10 WAR: | 4.6 |
To reiterate, these are current WAR values that undoubtedly will change in the future. For example, in 2018 the three differences in the top-10 are our ranking of Brady Singer, Matthew Liberatore and Ryan Rolison against the industry’s selections of Carter Stewart, Kyler Murray and Travis Swaggerty. Singer continues to produce at a high level, while Liberatore and Rolison at this time may not be exactly what we forecasted, but both are still pitching in either Triple-A or the Major Leagues. Both have a strong chance to gain additional WAR. The trio of Stewart, Murray and Swaggerty will most likely not produce any WAR in the future. Stewart’s (NPB) and Murray’s (NFL) stories are well-documented, while Swaggerty is no longer in affiliated baseball.
The 2019 draft was predicted to be deep and talented, and those expectations are playing out exactly as such. The inclusion of Corbin Carroll and Bryson Stott in our top-10 versus the industry selections of Josh Jung and Hunter Bishop are the only differences between our draft board and the industry. Again, time will tell, the paint isn’t dry yet.
The abbreviated draft of 2020 was in large part a gamble by everyone involved. Limited looks by all parties of a college season that lasted just four weeks, and a prep season that was a total wipeout for much of the country made it nearly impossible to arrange a draft board in any order of certainty. The result was a five round draft with restricted travel and workouts throughout mid-March to the actual MLB Draft that June. With prospect signabilities all over the place, deals were abundant. The three differences in our top-10 and the industry’s selection are Garrett Crochet, Ed Howard and Mick Abel vs. Heston Kjerstad, Robert Hassell and Reid Detmers.