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College baseball recruiting has moved into a new age that most resembles what football has known forever. Verbal commitments have become more and more reminiscent of the “soft commitment” of the gridiron recruits, and college baseball’s premier programs are no longer adhering to the unwritten rules of yesteryear that saw them back off of players who had verbally committed.

Whether NIL packages, better scholarship situations, or the allure of bigger programs and conferences, it is a player’s market right now and the going rate has skyrocketed for the services of the most talented prospects. 

The negative effect of all this (including transfer portal implications): trickle down has cut into high school signing classes. Inevitably “good players create good coaches”, and as better perceived talent comes back on the board, the trickle down effect kicks into high gear. This is only amplified by the yearly tradition of the Coaching Carousel which routinely causes a hiccup to recruits and programs alike. This is hardly new in the college baseball landscape as the MLB Draft has always provided an ominous cloud for programs that dread the signing of top recruits. The holes left by prep products who opted for professional contracts were once filled by late junior college pledges. However, with higher stakes comes less sympathy for adhering to the unwritten rule of staying away from another school’s recruit, and where some smaller schools may enjoy the luxury of surviving multiple losing seasons, top programs’ administrations have not been so forgiving.

While some will place blame entirely on coaching staffs and their inability to humanize the situation with regards to recruits who are being told that there is “no more room”, it is only fair to observe things from their point of view. The amazing growth of college baseball has led to an even greater emphasis on winning, and more specifically sustained success. Gone, with the transfer portal, are the rebuilding projects of the past, and with million dollar contracts on the line at the nation’s top programs, there is little sympathy given to down years by boosters and administrations. Yes, these coaches are paid handsome sums, but with that comes great responsibility (even to their own families) to sustain prominence.

But enough about the wishy-washy “who’s to blame” of the situation. Here’s the deal: coaches are going to build up their recruiting classes at all costs. They want the best players and they want the most of them. It is important for players and families to know that the evaluation process is always on-going. Initial pledges and promises are built on upside, but the cementation of a spot is carried by production and the mitigation of risk (how impactful can you be and how soon can that happen?). Scouting is hardly an exact science, and should those mistakes show themselves prior to a player getting to campus, it is almost beneficial for BOTH sides if the bandaid is pulled off. It may be difficult at the moment, but it avoids wasted time for each side.

While there are certainly quality additions and solid pieces being added to programs across the country via the Transfer Portal, the foundational strength of the most successful is statistically proven to be through high school recruiting. Sure, the Portal can provide an avenue for success, but the sustained importance of building a program with roots remains paramount. Superstars and impact performers are harvested and developed over time within a system that allows them to gain comfort and confidence through experience.

Even the power programs who have benefitted the most from Portal acquisitions, namely out of the Southeastern Conference, are generally packed with homegrown talent. For every Paul Skenes at LSU, there is Dylan Crews, Tre Morgan, Gavin Dugas and Cade Beloso who have been on campus since freshman year. For every Billy Amick at Tennessee, there is Christian Moore, Blake Burke, Dylan Dreiling and Hunter Ensley who were all developed from Day 1 in Knoxville.

The key takeaway is that to build a truly successful program, it is essential to have players who are developed within your system from the very start, not just relying on quick fixes or transfers. This long-term approach is critical because it allows players to grow and contribute meaningfully over the course of their college careers. As recruiting continues to evolve, it is likely that more emphasis will be placed on evaluating players over an extended period of time, rather than rushing to secure early commitments. Programs will prioritize finding players who not only have potential but also demonstrate the ability to thrive and grow within the program, ensuring a strong foundation for sustained success. This shift will be crucial for coaches looking to maintain a competitive edge and build lasting programs.

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