PBR Pitch Scores

First released at the start of June 2021, Prep Baseball Report’s data team – led by Zach Day and Joe Dattoli – have been diligently working to find the characteristics that make an individual pitch effective.

We categorize pitches in subjective buckets, self-labeling them as fastballs, curveballs, sliders, and so on. We’ve also gotten great at reading the digits that pop up on radar guns and TV broadcasts, typically near the score and inning somewhere. But there’s still so much more to pitching than raw velocity and spin rate. We’re collecting piles of meaningful information on a daily basis at PBR events, enough to help us generate new ways to evaluate pitch-by-pitch metrics more objectively.

Our data operations department is striving to simplify the way in which we identify quality fastballs and breaking balls, delivering a way to impartially quantify the level of useful break, run, rise on these pitches.

With that, we’re introducing you to our Pitch Scores series. Each player’s PBR profile will contain their fastball’s Hop+, Rise+, and Sink+ scores, as well as their breaking ball’s Hammer+ and Sweep+ scores. We’ll elaborate on each of these individually, detailing their utility, helping stack a player’s individual pitch effectiveness and action against the best of the best at the Major League level.

HOP SCORE

This was the first Pitch Score metric introduced by our data team, unveiled last summer. Here’s a refresher on the metric’s purpose: Up until its release, “hop” was a subjective term used to describe fastballs with “life” or action that appeared to help the pitch gain speed upon entering the strike zone. It was a sought after trait, something that was hard or even deemed impossible to teach. A fastball either had that life through the zone, or it didn’t.

The data team’s goal was to define and quantify hop within a fastball to be able to compare and evaluate hop across all levels, including MLB. So, the Hop Score was born.

Hop Score: A quantification of the level of hop in a fastball. In greater detail, a fastball with hop has a flat vertical approach angle, which creates more rise than run, creating that illusion of jump upon zone entry. Fastballs that exhibit these traits generate more swings and misses, as well as pop ups, especially when located at the top of the zone.

Roman Kimball (2021 PBR Super 60)

In the video above, you’ll find Roman Kimball’s (SC, 2021) performance at the 2021 Super 60. He’s since landed at Notre Dame’s campus, but prior to his arrival in South Bend, Kimball took the Super 60 by storm, and especially our onlooking analytics team. The TrackMan unit set behind home plate fawned over Kimball’s raw metrics, which stirred plenty of buzz on its own, but looking even closer at Kimball’s fastball data you’ll find one of the liveliest fastballs that we’ve measured since we first integrated this technology into our showcase setting. His athleticism and quick arm help generate advanced raw velocity, and he’s able to create those “hop” characteristics by releasing the ball closer to the ground than most arms, measured at 4.3 feet on average at this event, boosted by efficient backspin at rates recorded at over 2,500 rpm. Applying our new Hop+ calculation to the pitch, Kimball’s 138 score is the highest Hop Score in our system, as it stands.

+ Click here to learn more about Hop Score, including the calculation we use to generate the statistic, as well as the list of the MLB leaders in the new metric.

HAMMER SCORE

The Hammer Score was first introduced by the PBR data team last fall, designed to define the action on a breaking ball that we so often refer to as a “hammer.” Breaking pitches with hammer-like qualities typically share in common late movement working off a vertical plane through the strike zone. Our staff’s goal here was to more accurately define that pitch action, and to compare and evaluate breaking balls with effective vertical drop across all levels.

A curveball, or slider for that matter, with a higher Hammer Score has the potential to generate a greater swing-and-miss rate, especially when paired with fastball velocity and fastballs with high Hop Scores. Designing a pitch mix around Hammer and Hop is a common course of action at the Major League level, employed by knockout relievers like Craig Kimbrel, who’ve historically ran high strikeout rates.

Hammer Score: We define hammer, metrically, as a breaking ball that drops vertically with velocity through the strike zone. Breaking balls with high Hammer metrics exhibit acceleration downward off the vertical plane. Our Hammer Scores simplify the way we evaluate vertical breaking balls objectively. The effectiveness of a breaking ball is very dependent on outside factors, including location and pitch repertoire. In general, breaking balls with a higher Hammer Score are more difficult to hit than breaking balls with a lower one.

Austin Henry (2022 PBR Super 60)

Much has been written already about Austin Henry’s (SD, 2022; Wichita State commit) performance at this year’s Super 60 showcase. It was easy to see with the naked eye that Henry is capable of generating elite spin rates on his breaking ball, featuring biting topspin that produces sharp, late, and large vertical break as it approaches the strike zone. Helping contextualize Henry’s curveball is our Hammer+ Score, where his pitch measured at a nearly off-the-charts 154 mark. Perusing the MLB information we have and applying this same calculation to the 2021 data available to us, Henry’s breaking ball at the Super 60 was akin to MLB’s elite, as a 154 score matched Tyler Glasnow’s 2021 mark, and trailed just two others (Seth Lugo and Dillon Maples). It’s worth noting that Henry’s curveball also measured a top-scale Sweep Score as well, helping it stand out even further from the crowd.

+ Click here to learn more about Hammer Score, including the calculation we use to generate the statistic, as well as the list of the MLB leaders in the new metric.

RISE SCORE

While the two aforementioned scores had been previously published on our site, we’re unveiling three more Pitch Scores, including our new Rise Score, another metric used to help evaluate the effectiveness of a fastball. While it’s virtually impossible for the fastball to literally rise on its way to home, baseball’s been using the term to describe fastballs that give off the appearance of climbing up and through the strike zone. In reality, pitches with rising traits are generally those that feature elite backspin rates.

Rising fastballs visually carry through the strike zone, typically resulting in higher fly ball percentages, especially when located at the top of the zone. A higher Rise Score has the potential to generate more whiffs, and it’s complemented greatly by fastball movement characteristics that create a substantial movement gap between it and the pitcher’s breaking ball. It was our data team’s goal to objectively quantify fastballs with rise traits across all levels.

Rise Score: We define rise as a fastball that rises vertically with velocity through the strike zone. Using advanced pitch data metrics, PBR’s analytics department has developed the Rise Score to easily compare fastballs across multiple levels. The effectiveness of a fastball is very dependent on outside factors including location and pitch repertoire. In general, fastballs with higher a Rise Score are more difficult to hit.

Holden Wilkerson (2021 PBR Mid-Atlantic ProCase)

Here’s an example of our Pitch Scores helping our staff identify some players who might be sliding under the radar somewhat. At the 2021 PBR Mid-Atlantic ProCase, Holden Wilkerson (VA, 2021; Virginia Military Institute) checked a lot of boxes metrically, and he garnered praise for his low-90s fastball with plus spin traits behind both it and his breaking ball. But looking even closer, and with the help of the Rise+ Score, Wilkerson’s fastball deserves even more credit than it received. It scored a 132 mark at that event which, for comparison sake, would have paced both the 2021 and 2022 Super 60 events by fair margin. It’ll be exciting to see how Wilkerson progresses at VMI, where he’s a freshman.

+ Click here to learn more about Rise Score, including the calculation we use to generate the statistic, as well as the list of the MLB leaders in the new metric.

SINK SCORE‍‍

Two Pitch Scores previously published by our PBR analytics team, Hop and Rise, help capture the efficacy of the traditional four-seam fastball, one that leads to more swings and misses. We’re introducing a third score here to help objectively evaluate the fastballs that rely on horizontal action rather than vertical movement, with the help of the Sink Score.

Until now, the word sink has been used to describe a fastball that visually drops and runs arm-side through the strike zone. Fastballs with extreme sink spin at a lesser rate because of that horizontal action, producing less backspin as a result. Sinking fastballs visually drop through the strike zone generating higher ground ball rates, especially when located at the bottom of the zone. It was the PBR analytics team’s goal to be able to objectively quantify fastballs with sink characteristics across levels.

Sink Score: Sink is most commonly defined as a fastball that visually drops and runs arm-side through the strike zone. With Sink Score, our staff was able to create the Sink+ statistic to normalize our Sink Scores across all levels. We now have a simple way to objectively compare fastballs with sink characteristics between levels and over time with the Sink+ stat. The effectiveness of a fastball is very dependent on outside factors including location and pitch repertoire. In general, fastballs with a higher Sink Score are more difficult for the batter to square up.

Ben Brutti (2022 PBR Super 60)

Ben Brutti (2022; South Florida) made the trip to this year’s Super 60 from Rhode Island and he really made a name for himself there, and our subsequent post-event content drove home that point. The lanky right-hander sat 92-94 mph on TrackMan and his lower release height (4.9 feet on average) and arm slot help generate a fastball with hard horizontal action, producing a Sink+ Score of 135, which was far and away the highest of this year’s Super 60.

+ Click here to learn more about Sink Score, including the calculation we use to generate the statistic, as well as the list of the MLB leaders in the new metric.

SWEEP SCORE

Finally, we’re sharing our fifth Pitch Score, one that helps quantify the effectiveness of breaking balls that rely on their horizontal movement rather than their vertical action. While curveballs and sliders with more defined vertical shape would generate a higher Hammer Score, breaking balls with large horizontal break are often described as “sweeping” pitches, and thus, the Sweep Score materialized.

Sweep has long been used by the baseball community as a way to describe a breaking pitch with large horizontal movement through the strike zone. It was our data team’s goal to define and quantify sweeping breaking balls as a way to more effectively compare and evaluate their horizontal drop and effectiveness across all levels.

Sweep Score: Sweep is defined as a breaking ball that sweeps horizontally with velocity through the strike zone. A higher Sweep Score has the potential to generate more swings and misses, especially when paired with complementary fastball movement characteristics that create a movement gap between the fastball and breaking ball. We now have a simple way to objectively compare breaking balls with sweep characteristics between levels. The Sweep Score helped shape our Sweep+ stat that will normalize the pitch action across an entire level. The effectiveness of a fastball is very dependent on outside factors including location and pitch repertoire. In general, breaking balls with a higher Sweep Score are more difficult for the batter to square up.

Sam Malec (2021 PBR Super 60)

From Minnesota, and now on the Golden Gophers’ roster, Sam Malec (2021) has a unique, long-levered frame and whippy arm speed that releases from a lower slot, complementing his slider that has out-pitch traits no matter which methods of evaluation you’re using. At last year’s Super 60 event, Malec flashed that swing-and-miss offering’s potential by leading the event in Sweep+ Score at 137. He throws it aggressively, around the 80 mph mark, with spin rates that climbed into the 2,300 rpm range, breaking horizontally at over 17 inches on average.

+ Click here to learn more about Sweep Score, including the calculation we use to generate the statistic, as well as the list of the MLB leaders in the new metric.