Chase
Dollander

At his best Dollander will show easy velocity up to 98 mph on his riding fastball (17-20” IVB), two distinct breaking balls; a sharp, 85-88 mph swing/miss slider and a 75-77 mph curveball and an above average 88-89 mph changeup. The right-hander is also polished and capable of performing at the highest of levels, posting a 10-0 record with a 2.39 ERA and 108 strikeouts against only 13 walks in 79 innings last season. This spring has been a bit of a different story as the right-hander’s off speed offerings are just not as sharp and his fastball command not as crisp as 2022. As a result he has to work harder to get outs. His hits allowed per nine innings have increased from 5.7 in 2022 to 7.7 this season. Despite a subpar statistical year to his standards (4-3, 4.19 ERA, 43 IP, 37 H, 14 BB, 63 SO), Dollander remains a complete package of a front-line arm combining athleticism, command, performance and analytics. If not for Paul Skenes, Dollander would be considered the best college pitching prospect in at least ten years. With continued good health he remains a likely top five overall pick.

Newly nestled in at No. 2 after a dominant sophomore season for the Volunteers, Chase Dollander is the top college pitching prospect. With easy fastball velocity up to 98 mph (Post-season Heat Sheet), two distinct breaking balls (a sharp, 83-86 mph slider and a 73-75 mph curveball) and an above average changeup, the right-hander also performs at the highest of levels, posting a 10-0 record with a 2.39 ERA and 108 strikeouts against only 13 walks in 79 innings last season for Tennessee.

The Vols' Saturday starter has some of the easiest velocity you'll see, playing catch at 93-95 and topping out at 96 on this look against Missouri. It's a velo that he maintained throughout his 100-pitch start. After a rough first inning when he allowed two solo home runs on a hung slider to Torin Montgomery and a 94 mph fastball to Luke Mann, Dollander settled in, striking out 10 and walking no one in 6.2 IP. He controlled his fastball to both sides of the plate and demonstrated an ability to go back-n-forth between his heater and a better than average mid-80s changeup. The change-of-pace has already improved a full grade since my first look in Millington this past fall against Louisiana Tech. Nine of the 13 changeups he threw against Missouri were for strikes. He also shows hitters two different breaking pitches: a sharp, 83-86 mph slider and a 73-75 mph curveball. The slider is the top offering of the two and his second best pitch overall. Dollander is undoubtedly a name to follow for the 2023 draft and will hear his name called on Day One if he continues to pitch at this level.

Dollander was absolutely electric, tossing five and a third innings of perfect baseball. A calming, confident presence on the mound, Dollander was locked in. Despite having a fastball that was sitting 87-89, Dollander worked over the Pirates lineup with a legitimate four pitch mix. He came out of the gate firing with his changeup. Maintaining arm speed, the pitch showed late sink as Dollander pulled the string back time and time again. The curveball and slider at-time have similar shape, what differentiated the two was the depth of the break. Dollander’s slider was harder at 76-77 with a tight downward action, while the 11/5 curveball was a little slower at 72-74, with more downward action. Dollander would go all seven innings, scattering two runs, one earned on three hits, striking out eight and walking one.

Med framed sophomore with good composure and actions. He is the definition of projectable, Young and under control with a compact arm action, life to the fastball, good delivery and the ability to spin. Though he may be just a pocket follow at this point, I am very confident with natural strength gains this young right-hander will establish himself on the Georgia high school scene. Did not get the results he was looking for on this day, but all the ingredients are present. Excited about watching this one progress.