2024 MLB Draft: Winter's Mock Draft

On Tuesday, Major League Baseball held its second annual Draft Lottery that featured surprising result at No. 1 overall.

The Cleveland Guardians, which came into the evening with a 2 percent chance at receiving the first overall pick, now hold the No. 1 spot. Even more surprising, the Cincinnati Reds, which held a 0.9 percent chance at the first pick, leap all the way to No. 2 overall despite finishing with a record above .500 – which is precisely the kind of allure MLB was surely looking to create with this Draft Lottery process.

Meanwhile, none of the three teams (Athletics, Royals, Rockies) who finished with the lowest winning percentages in baseball after the 2023 campaign wound up securing either of the first two picks. Instead, Colorado landed the No. 3 overall pick, the A's will have to settle for No. 4, while the Royals slipped to No. 6. The White Sox are sandwiched in between the A's and the Royals at No. 5 overall after earning a place in the lottery, though it comes with a different kind of price tag, as they won't be lottery eligible in 2025 due to revenue-sharing rules.

Check out where the Prep Baseball Draft HQ staff saw this '24 class once the curtain fell on the 2023 MLB Draft in July, in side this Draft HQ '24 Mock, First Look.

So, with that, we've conducted our latest mock draft, which is now a version that features the concrete order of the first 30 picks. We published a mock draft after last year's first-ever lottery where we identified three of the first four players picked in 2023, albeit in a slightly different order (though we did connect on Dylan Crews' eventual destination in the draft). Eight of the players we estimated as top-10-picks back then ultimately did become top-10 selections, and the other two didn't make it past pick No. 17. In total, 20 of the prospects we tabbed for the first round at this time last year did go on to become first-round picks in the 2023 MLB Draft.

With that being said, the 2024 Draft is much cloudier than 2023's pool of prospective talent. There's a solid core of collegiate talent at the top, though it might be lacking some of the superstar qualities that followed the likes of the LSU duo Crews and Paul Skenes, as well as the star preps Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. And speaking of this prep class, it is similarly lacking the punch Clark and Jenkins already holstered at the start of 2023. It is also without a bonafide top right-handed prep arm, like the track record Noble Meyer laid en route to being the No. 11 pick last summer.

The road to the 2024 MLB Draft is in full swing following the late summer's key circuit that carried into the fall, which included the inaugural Prep Baseball All-American Game, and its Team 2024 roster was aced by the pitcher we thought might tempt the Rockies at No. 3 below.

See where Prep Baseball Draft HQ's thinking is directing us as we begin to unfold a 2024 Draft cycle that contains quite a bit of uncertainty, as it stands. Stay tuned for additional draft coverage over the next few weeks, as we attempt to tee up the circuit from igniting in earnest once these prospects reconvene near the start of 2024.

#	TEAM		PLAYER	POS.	FROM (Previous HS or Commitment)
(1)	Cleveland Guardians		Jac Caglianone	1B/LHP	Florida (Plant HS, FL, 2021)
(2)	Cincinnati Reds		JJ Wetherholt	SS	West Virginia (Mars Area HS, PA, 2021)
(3)	Colorado Rockies		Cam Caminiti	LHP	Saguaro HS, AZ (LSU commit)
(4)	Oakland Athletics		Travis Bazzana	2B	Oregon State (Turramurra HS, Australia, 2021)
(5)	Chicago White Sox		Bryce Rainer	INF/RHP	Harvard-Westlake HS, CA (Texas commit)
(6)	Kansas City Royals		Konnor Griffin	OF	Jackson Prep HS, MS (LSU commit)
(7)	St. Louis Cardinals		Tommy White	3B	LSU (IMG Academy HS, FL, 2021)
(8)	Los Angeles Angels		Josh Hartle	LHP	Wake Forest (Reagan HS, NC, 2021)
(9)	Pittsburgh Pirates		Nick Kurtz	1B	Wake Forest (The Baylor School HS, TN, 2021)
(10)	Washington Nationals		Brody Brecht	RHP	Iowa (Ankeny HS, IA, 2021)
(11)	Detroit Tigers		Drew Beam	RHP	Tennessee (Blackman HS, TN, 2021)
(12)	Boston Red Sox		Carter Johnson	SS	Oxford HS, AL (Alabama commit)
(13)	San Francisco Giants		Hagen Smith	LHP	Arkansas (Bullard HS, TX, 2021)
(14)	Chicago Cubs		Vance Honeycutt	CF	North Carolina (Salisbury HS, NC, 2021)
(15)	Seattle Mariners		Jacob Cozart	C	NC State (Wesleyan Christian HS, NC, 2021)
(16)	Miami Marlins		PJ Morlando	OF	Summerville HS, SC (South Carolina commit)
(17)	Milwaukee Brewers		Braden Montgomery	OF/RHP	Texas A&M (Madison Central HS, MS, 2021)
(18)	Tampa Bay Rays		Noah Franco	OF/LHP	IMG Academy HS, FL (TCU commit)
(19)	New York Mets		Seaver King	CF/INF	Wake Forest (Athens Christian HS, GA, 2021)
(20)	Toronto Blue Jays		Kale Fountain	3B	Norris HS, NE (LSU commit)
(21)	Minnesota Twins		Malcolm Moore*	C	Stanford (CK McClatchy HS, CA, 2022)
(22)	Baltimore Orioles		Dakota Jordan*	OF	Mississippi State (Jackson Academy HS, MS, 2022)
(23)	Los Angeles Dodgers		Michael Massey	RHP	Wake Forest (North Gwinnett HS, GA, 2021)
(24)	San Diego Padres		William Schmidt	RHP	Catholic HS, LA (LSU commit)
(25)	New York Yankees		Mike Sirota	OF	Northeastern (The Gunnery HS, CT, 2021)
(26)	Atlanta Braves		Luke Holman	RHP	LSU (Wilson West Lawn HS, PA, 2021)
(27)	Philadelphia Phillies		Ryan Sloan	RHP	York HS, IL (Wake Forest commit)
(28)	Houston Astros		Charlie Condon	OF	Georgia (The Walker School HS, GA, 2021)
(29)	Arizona Diamondbacks		Chase Burns	RHP	Wake Forest (Beech HS, TN, 2021)
(30)	Texas Rangers		David Shields	LHP	Mt. Lebanon HS, PA (Miami commit)

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