Prep Baseball Report

2024 MLB Draft: Winter's Mock Draft

Draft HQ staff


On Tuesday, Major League Baseball held its second annual Draft Lottery that featured surprising result at No. 1 overall.

The Cleveland Guardians, which came into the evening with a 2 percent chance at receiving the first overall pick, now hold the No. 1 spot. Even more surprising, the Cincinnati Reds, which held a 0.9 percent chance at the first pick, leap all the way to No. 2 overall despite finishing with a record above .500 – which is precisely the kind of allure MLB was surely looking to create with this Draft Lottery process.

Meanwhile, none of the three teams (Athletics, Royals, Rockies) who finished with the lowest winning percentages in baseball after the 2023 campaign wound up securing either of the first two picks. Instead, Colorado landed the No. 3 overall pick, the A's will have to settle for No. 4, while the Royals slipped to No. 6. The White Sox are sandwiched in between the A's and the Royals at No. 5 overall after earning a place in the lottery, though it comes with a different kind of price tag, as they won't be lottery eligible in 2025 due to revenue-sharing rules.

Check out where the Prep Baseball Draft HQ staff saw this '24 class once the curtain fell on the 2023 MLB Draft in July, in side this Draft HQ '24 Mock, First Look.

So, with that, we've conducted our latest mock draft, which is now a version that features the concrete order of the first 30 picks. We published a mock draft after last year's first-ever lottery where we identified three of the first four players picked in 2023, albeit in a slightly different order (though we did connect on Dylan Crews' eventual destination in the draft). Eight of the players we estimated as top-10-picks back then ultimately did become top-10 selections, and the other two didn't make it past pick No. 17. In total, 20 of the prospects we tabbed for the first round at this time last year did go on to become first-round picks in the 2023 MLB Draft.

With that being said, the 2024 Draft is much cloudier than 2023's pool of prospective talent. There's a solid core of collegiate talent at the top, though it might be lacking some of the superstar qualities that followed the likes of the LSU duo Crews and Paul Skenes, as well as the star preps Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. And speaking of this prep class, it is similarly lacking the punch Clark and Jenkins already holstered at the start of 2023. It is also without a bonafide top right-handed prep arm, like the track record Noble Meyer laid en route to being the No. 11 pick last summer.

The road to the 2024 MLB Draft is in full swing following the late summer's key circuit that carried into the fall, which included the inaugural Prep Baseball All-American Game, and its Team 2024 roster was aced by the pitcher we thought might tempt the Rockies at No. 3 below.

See where Prep Baseball Draft HQ's thinking is directing us as we begin to unfold a 2024 Draft cycle that contains quite a bit of uncertainty, as it stands. Stay tuned for additional draft coverage over the next few weeks, as we attempt to tee up the circuit from igniting in earnest once these prospects reconvene near the start of 2024.

2024 MLB DRAFT: Second Look

FROM (Previous HS or Commitment)
(1) Cleveland Guardians Jac Caglianone 1B/LHP Florida (Plant HS, FL, 2021)
(2) Cincinnati Reds JJ Wetherholt SS West Virginia (Mars Area HS, PA, 2021)
(3) Colorado Rockies Cam Caminiti LHP Saguaro HS, AZ (LSU commit)
(4) Oakland Athletics Travis Bazzana 2B Oregon State (Turramurra HS, Australia, 2021)
(5) Chicago White Sox Bryce Rainer INF/RHP Harvard-Westlake HS, CA (Texas commit)
(6) Kansas City Royals Konnor Griffin OF Jackson Prep HS, MS (LSU commit)
(7) St. Louis Cardinals Tommy White 3B LSU (IMG Academy HS, FL, 2021)
(8) Los Angeles Angels Josh Hartle LHP Wake Forest (Reagan HS, NC, 2021)
(9) Pittsburgh Pirates Nick Kurtz 1B Wake Forest (The Baylor School HS, TN, 2021)
(10) Washington Nationals Brody Brecht  RHP Iowa (Ankeny HS, IA, 2021)
(11) Detroit Tigers Drew Beam RHP Tennessee (Blackman HS, TN, 2021)
(12) Boston Red Sox Carter Johnson SS Oxford HS, AL (Alabama commit)
(13) San Francisco Giants Hagen Smith LHP Arkansas (Bullard HS, TX, 2021)
(14) Chicago Cubs Vance Honeycutt CF North Carolina (Salisbury HS, NC, 2021)
(15) Seattle Mariners Jacob Cozart C NC State (Wesleyan Christian HS, NC, 2021)
(16) Miami Marlins PJ Morlando OF Summerville HS, SC (South Carolina commit)
(17) Milwaukee Brewers Braden Montgomery OF/RHP Texas A&M (Madison Central HS, MS, 2021)
(18) Tampa Bay Rays Noah Franco OF/LHP IMG Academy HS, FL (TCU commit)
(19) New York Mets Seaver King CF/INF Wake Forest (Athens Christian HS, GA, 2021)
(20) Toronto Blue Jays Kale Fountain 3B Norris HS, NE (LSU commit) 
(21) Minnesota Twins Malcolm Moore* C Stanford (CK McClatchy HS, CA, 2022)
(22) Baltimore Orioles Dakota Jordan* OF Mississippi State (Jackson Academy HS, MS, 2022)
(23) Los Angeles Dodgers Michael Massey RHP Wake Forest (North Gwinnett HS, GA, 2021)
(24) San Diego Padres William Schmidt RHP Catholic HS, LA (LSU commit)
(25) New York Yankees Mike Sirota OF Northeastern (The Gunnery HS, CT, 2021)
(26) Atlanta Braves Luke Holman RHP LSU (Wilson West Lawn HS, PA, 2021)
(27) Philadelphia Phillies Ryan Sloan RHP York HS, IL (Wake Forest commit)
(28) Houston Astros Charlie Condon OF Georgia (The Walker School HS, GA, 2021)
(29) Arizona Diamondbacks Chase Burns RHP  Wake Forest (Beech HS, TN, 2021) 
(30) Texas Rangers David Shields LHP Mt. Lebanon HS, PA (Miami commit) 


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