GHSA Playoff Preview: 5A

Finally, and officially, playoff baseball in Georgia is here. After last week’s slate of games decided which teams are seeded where, we finally know which teams are inside the 32-team tournament, and which are on the sidelines. After breaking down the 7A playoff picture and the 6A scene yesterday, it’s time to turn to the 5A class, one that could be the most exciting out of all eight Georgia brackets.

GROUP 1

Teams:
+ No. 1 seeds: Kell, Ola
+ No. 2 seeds: Buford (GA Power 25 No. 15), McIntosh
+ No. 3 seeds: Arabia Mountain, South Effingham
+ No. 4 seeds: Jackson, Veterans

Region 7 winners Kell was previously ranked on the GA Power 25, but two losses last week nearly cost them the regional title and did push them just off the rankings as a result. Still, at 23-6, it’s been a highly successful season for the Longhorns. They won both their games against Carrollton (which is what helped claim the regional trophy), and also beat 7A’s Woodstock and Campbell. They might not be in their best form, but they should be able to get by No. 4 seed Jackson. Atlanta’s Jaguars went 14-11 this spring, but struggled against the competition in and around the GA Power 25, like Riverwood and Decatur, their regional rivals. We’ll see how they handle the Longhorns from Marietta.

The Ola Mustangs tied just edged out Locust Grove for the regional title and were rewarded with a series against the struggling Veterans Warhawks. For the Mustangs, their 21-9 and record is certainly respectable, but they did have their fair share of trouble against teams clamoring for Power 25 positions, like Starr’s Mill, East Coweta, and Pike County. Luckily for them, Veterans’ 2-10 regional record was still enough for them to earn a No. 4 seed into the tournament. They’re headed into the postseason in the midst of a 1-9 stretch.

I think it’s fair to call last year’s runners-up, Buford, the favorite in the group. Even though they’re not a No. 1 seed, the Wolves have the most talent of any of the eight teams in this quarter of the bracket. They played one of the most difficult schedules of any team in the state, especially for a 5A program, and it led to their 18-9 record. With wins over Mill Creek, Etowah, Brookwood, Parkview, and a split between rivals Loganville, the Wolves are once again state title ready. They did have some bumps in the road along the way, and only just earned the No. 2 seed on the last day of regional play, but nonetheless, they look as hungry as ever.

They’ll be playing Arabia Mountain, a 10-11 Rams squad that has just one win in its last nine games and has had some trouble keeping their opponents off the scoreboard.

McIntosh is the other No. 2 seed in this group and, like Buford, might be a little better than that seeding. The Chiefs went 19-9 this spring, 14-4 in their own region, and made a really competitive series out of their three games with heavyweights Starr’s Mill, winning one of those. In fact, they actually outscored the Panthers in those three games, 16-11. South Effingham is a 17-13 this season and actually owns a win over ranked Decatur, which took place way back on Feb. 22. The Mustangs have what it takes to make it a fun series in Peachtree City.

GROUP 2

Teams:
+ No. 1 seeds: Decatur (No. 16), Harris County
+ No. 2 seeds: Chamblee, Statesboro
+ No. 3 seeds: Walnut Grove, Whitewater
+ No. 4 seeds: Rome, Union Grove

The Decatur Bulldogs went 23-6 this spring and went a perfect 14-0 inside Region 6. A couple weeks back, when they swept Riverwood in a narrow two games, they boxed up the regional title and have since been awaiting this moment, the playoffs have arrived. At No. 16 on our GA Power 25, Decatur’s had some big moments this spring; they beat the best 2A school in the state, they stomped a 7A heavyweight in Grayson, 10-0, and they were on cruise control inside their own region.

Despite all the good work, they drew one of the toughest No. 4 seeds on the 5A bracket: Rome. The Wolves went 16-8 overall this spring inside a competitive Region 7. They’re a hard-nosed team that’s forced Decatur to be at its very best this afternoon. This is one of the more exciting match-ups in the entire first round.

Harris County is operating as this group’s other No. 1 seed. They’ve been one of the best, most under-the-radar programs in the state this season, too. At 20-7, the Tigers have handed Thomas County Central (a former ranked program) three of their four losses this spring. They’re ready to take on Union Grove. But this is another enticing No. 1 vs. No. 4 contest. The Wolverines are winners of 10 straight games, one of the lengthiest streaks in the state. Union Grove will be putting it all on the line this afternoon, with a ton of momentum on their side.

No. 3 seed Walnut Grove (17-9) is battle-tested. The Warriors were just edged out by Buford of the No. 2 seed in Region 8, but their tough regional schedule has prepared them for the postseason. They weren’t able to steal a game from the Red Devils, but they do own a win over the Wolves, as well as 7A’s Peachtree Ridge. They’ll be taking on Chamblee, a 17-12 program that finished second in Region 5. The Bulldogs are playing their best baseball of the spring right now, collecting five straight wins including one over Flowery Branch and two over Lithonia.

Statesboro, the other No. 2 seed here, is reeling from a three-game sweep by Richmond Hill that cost them the regional title. They’d been on a roll since mid-March that lifted them past South Effingham (twice), but they’ve otherwise struggled against teams with winning records. The Whitewater Wildcats, Statesboro’s opponent, is coming off a series loss against the highly talented Starr’s Mill Panthers, in which they earned a game one win by a 9-1 mark. Whitewater was 17-9 this spring and is capable of stealing the series as the lower seed.

GROUP 3

Teams:
+ No. 1 seeds: Starr’s Mill (No. 18), Southwest DeKalb
+ No. 2 seeds: Riverwood (No. 25), Locust Grove
+ No. 3 seeds: East Paulding, Bainbridge
+ No. 4 seeds: Clarke Central, Ware County

This quarter of the bracket is pretty interesting, with two GA Power 25 ranked squads: Starr’s Mill and Riverwood. Though, the Raiders aren’t operating as a No. 1 seed here. After losing two games to region rivals Decatur, they had to settle for a second-place finish in Region 6. Still, they’re really talented and went 21-3 this spring, with wins over North Atlanta and Norcross to add to the resume. They’re also led by Brett Thomas, a right-hander that’s quickly ascended into an intriguing MLB Draft prospect.

Riverwood is going to be playing East Paulding this afternoon, the Raiders from Dallas. They’ve played some quality baseball all spring long and have done well to take games from regional meetings against the likes of Kell, Carrollton, and Rome. They’ve played some big games this spring and can clearly hang in there, so it’s going to be fun to watch which team comes out of this tough round-one series.

Back to Starr’s Mill, the Panthers are perennial contenders and have only upheld that reputation in 2019. They went 26-4 this spring, split a series with Houston County, beat Ola, and also went 16-2 inside their region, winning their series match-ups with McIntosh, Whitewater, and Griffin, the teams that finished behind Starr’s Mill in their, in that order. They’re among the 5A favorites. Ware County is set to challenge Starr’s Mill. The Gators are just 7-22 this spring squaring off against one of 5A’s best programs. They did manage to win a couple games over New Hampstead to close the regular season, so maybe they have a little steam behind them.

Southwest DeKalb is the other No. 1 seed in this quarter of the bracket. They went 15-4 this spring, but didn’t venture far outside of Region 5 action. An 11-1 mark in their own region is evidence that they’re talented, but it’ll be interesting to see how they fare against the powerhouse of this class, provided they can get by their first-round opponents, Clarke Central. The Gladiators won just six games this spring, but they won their last two of the spring, both against Cedar Shoals, and it’s given them this chance in the playoffs. They have to share a region with the like of Loganville, Buford, and Walnut Grove, so we’ll see if that experience has made them more prepared for a game like this.

Locust Grove (18-8) and Bainbridge (12-14) have the other No. 2 vs. No. 3 seed meeting in this group. The Wildcats are downright talented. They have marquee wins over East Coweta, Redan, Union Grove (twice), and split their series with region rivals Ola. They come in as the favorites over the Bearcats, a team that’s won three straight but was unable to really test the best teams from its own region.

GROUP 4

Teams:
+ No. 1 seeds: Loganville (No. 7), Wayne County
+ No. 2 seeds: Carrollton, Thomas County Central
+ No. 3 seeds: North Springs, Jones County
+ No. 4 seeds: Lithonia, Fayette County

While there’s only one ranked team in this group of eight, there’s a ton of talent here. It might be the strongest quarter of the 5A bracket, pound for pound. Obviously, there’s the defending champs, Loganville. They’re the No. 7-ranked team on the GA Power 25 and have among the most dominant pitching in the state, regardless of class. At 21-6 this spring, Loganville has wins over the likes of Archer, Blessed Trinity, split against Buford, Mill Creek, Collins Hill, Brookwood, and Walnut Grove (twice). It’s fair to call them the 5A favorites.

After that, things get messy here. While Wayne County is the other No. 1 seed, the No. 2 seeds both have No. 1 seed-esque resumes. First, let’s break down how Wayne County got here. The Yellow Jackets went 17-12 overall but challenged themselves by scheduling the likes of Loganville (L; 4-1), Marist (L; 2-0), Lambert (W; 9-7), and Richmond Hill twice (0-2). While they won one of those contests, it’s surely helped them garner the experience you need to make a deep playoff run. We’ll see if it pays off.

The Carrollton Trojans are a No. 2 seed, but went 24-5 this spring have certainly have the resume of a team that deserves to be right on the GA Power 25 bubble. They have wins over Heritage, Hillgrove, Rome (twice), Harris County (twice), but it was their two losses to region champ Kell that prevented them from regular season hardware. Still, they’re a really tough match-up for North Springs (14-15), though the Spartans have the big-game experience, and they’ve notched a couple notable wins this year, too, like their win over Norcross, but they were handily beaten by Region 6 opponents Riverwood and Decatur.

Thomas County Central actually spent a couple of weeks on the GA Power 25 this spring but were ultimately ousted when they lost a pair of games to Harris County, the Region 1 champs. Still, with two wins over Lowndes and Colquitt County, three against Bainbridge, another others over East Coweta and Dacula, the TCC Yellowjackets could surprise many and earn a berth in the quarterfinals.

They’ll be playing Jones County first, the 16-10 Greyhounds. Jones won both their games against Locust Grove, split with Union Grove, and won an early season encounter with Houston County, so they know what it takes to a win a big game.

Lithonia and Fayette County are the No. 4 seeds that have to play Loganville and Wayne County. At 10-10, Lithonia has had an up and down 2019 and it’s not going to get easier against the Red Devils. As for Fayette County, the Tigers have skidded through the month of April, and it’ll be tough to get back on track in Jesup.

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