MLB Draft Review: AL West

Closing with the AL West, here's an analytical look at how the 2015-2017 draft classes are shaping up using WAR (WAR Defined). The Astros have the lead, but the Angels aren't far behind. How can the A's, Mariners and Rangers close the gap? It's all below. All references to a prospect’s overall MLB ranking or ranking within the organization is per MLB Pipeline.

HOUSTON ASTROS (Scouting Director Mike Elias)
2015 (list): 1st Round  2nd Overall Alex Bregman. Current WAR: 20.8
Individual WAR Leader: Bregman
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 24.5*
MLers to Date: 8 (Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Tom Eshelman, Trent Thornton, Garrett Stubbs, Patrick Sandoval, Myles Straw, Zac Grotz)
Signing Bonuses: $19.10M

2016 (list): 1st Round  17th Overall Forrest Whitley. Current WAR 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Abraham Toro, 5th Round. Current WAR: 0.3
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.3*
MLers to Date: 2 (Jake Rogers, Toro)
Signing Bonuses: $6.91M

2017 (list): 1st Round  15th Overall J.B. Bukauskas Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Josh Rojas, 27th Round. Current WAR: 0.0
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 2 (Corbin Martin, Rojas)
Signing Bonuses: $8.18M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 24.8*   MLers: 12   BONUSES: $34.19M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $1.38M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 2nd overall)

SUMMARY: With just one pick the ‘Stros rank No. 2 total WAR and ROI: Alex Bregman has produced 84% of their total WAR with 20.8 of the 24.8 to date, nearly doubling the next 2015 draftee, Paul DeJong (10.6 WAR). However, Houston also leads in total big leaguers produced with 12 who have already reached the Show, including eight from the 2015 draft class alone. With high ceiling prospects Whitely and Tucker knocking on the door for everyday ML roles for the Astros in 2020 and many other of their picks scattered around the league as a result of trades—Daz Cameron (Detroit Tigers), Patrick Sandoval (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim), Jake Rogers (Detroit), J. B. Bukauskas and Corbin Martin (Arizona Diamondbacks)—the potential is there for the Astros 2015-17 drafts to produce at historic levels.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (Scouting Director Ric Wilson 2015-16, Matt Swanson 2017)
2015 (list): 1st Round  26th Overall Taylor Ward Current WAR: -0.5
Individual WAR Leader: David Fletcher, 6th Round. Current WAR: 5.7
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 5.7*
MLers to Date: 3 (Ward, Fletcher, Jared Walsh)
Signing Bonuses: $5.84M

2016 (list): 1st Round  16th Overall Matt Thaiss. Current WAR 0.7
Individual WAR Leader: Thaiss
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.7
MLers to Date: 1 (Thaiss)
Signing Bonuses: $7.32M

2017 (list): 1st Round  10th Overall Jo Adell Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Griffin Canning, 2nd Round. Current WAR: 1.1
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 1.1
MLers to Date: 1 (Canning)
Signing Bonuses: $9.26M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 7.5   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $22.42M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $2.99M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 6th overall)

SUMMARY: Ward was a surprise selection at 26th overall by the Halos in 2015 and has struggled with the bat during his two stints in the ML. However, 6th rounder Fletcher produced 3.8 WAR in 2019 alone and currently ranks 5th among all 2015 draftees in career WAR. 39th rounder Walsh reached the big leagues in 2019 after mashing his way through four-plus years in the minors and 2nd rounder Jahmai Jones ranks No. 6 in the Angels organization. 2016 1st rounder Thaiss made his ML debut in 2019 and produced a 0.7 WAR in 147 at-bats while athletic 2nd rounder Brandon Marsh now ranks No. 2 in their system. Despite industry concerns at the time with his hit tool, new SD Matt Swanson went with athleticism and upside with his selection of Adell in 2017. And, thus far it has looked brilliant. Adell is the No. 5 ranked prospect in MLB and continues to impress with all five tools. 2nd rounder Canning established himself as a ML rotation piece in 2019, while the Halos look to have hit on another late round college pick with 30th rounder Jeremy Beasley who currently ranks No. 19 in their system.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (Scouting Director Eric Kubota)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 20th Overall Richie Martin. Current WAR: -0.6
Individual WAR Leader: Seth Brown, 19th Round. Current WAR: 0.8
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.8*
MLers to Date: 3 (Martin, Skye Bolt, Brown)
Signing Bonuses: $6.38M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 6th Overall AJ Puk. Current WAR: 0.2
Individual WAR Leader: Sean Murphy, 2nd Round. Current WAR: 0.6
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.8
MLers to Date: 2 (Puk, Murphy)
Signing Bonuses: $11.00M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 6th Overall Austin Beck. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $12.57M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 1.6   MLers: 5   BONUSES: $29.95M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $18.7M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 21st overall)

SUMMARY: 1st rounder Martin was a stretch at the time for 20th overall in 2015. He was left unprotected, off the A’s 40-man roster, last December and was selected by the Orioles during the Rule V Draft. He played 120 games for the O’s in 2019, producing an uninspiring .208/.260/322 slash and -0.6 WAR during his MLB rookie season. 19th rounder Seth Brown smashed 30-plus home runs in two of his four minor league full seasons, then debuted for the big club in 2019, producing a 0.8 WAR. 4th rounder Skye Bolt ranks as the No. 16 prospect in the organization and projects to be a 4th outfielder with speed and left-handed power at the ML level. Overall, the 2015 draft is thin on current ML production and offers modest returns for the future. However, the 2016 draft has the potential for impact. The A’s spent $11M and look to have landed a pair of potential future All-Stars with Puk and Murphy who rank as the No. 42 and No. 43 prospects in MLB. Supplemental 1st rounder Daulton Jeffries sits at No. 12 in the organization while 2nd rounder Logan Shore was traded to Detroit for Mike Fiers. Selected 6th overall in 2017 and largely based on his elite bat speed, Beck hasn’t produced much in-game, over-the-fence power to this point in his career (12 HRs in 1075 PAs). He is ranked No. 10 in the A’s system. Light-hitting Kevin Merrell was chosen 33rd overall in 2017 as a supplemental 1st round pick and was traded to Kansas City this past summer. He ranks No. 18 in the Royals’ system. However, the A’s have depth, albeit lower ceiling prospects, in their system with several other 2017 selections, including 3rd rounder Nick Allen (ranked No. 6 in the organization), 2nd rounder Greg Deichman (No. 17), 8th round college senior sign Brian Howard (No. 22), 7th rounder Parker Dunshee (No. 24) and 4th rounder Will Toffey who was traded with Bobby Wahl to the Mets for Jeurys Familia, ranks No. 24 for New York.

SEATTLE MARINERS (Scouting Director Tom McNamara 2015-16, Scott Hunter 2017)
2015 (list): 1st Round NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: Art Warren, 23rd Round. Current WAR 0.3
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.3*
MLers to Date: 4 (Andrew Moore, Braden Bishop, Drew Jackson, Warren)
Signing Bonuses: $5.37M

2016 (list): 1st Round, 11th Overall Kyle Lewis. Current WAR: 0.3
Individual WAR Leader: Lewis
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.5*
MLers to Date: 5 (Lewis, Donnie Walton, Matt Festa, Reggie McClain, Robert Dugger)
Signing Bonuses: $7.57M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 17th Overall Evan White. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Total: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $7.42M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 0.8*   MLers: 9   BONUSES: $20.36M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $25.45M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 22nd overall)

SUMMARY: A well above average number of MLers (9) from 2015-16 has produced a paltry 0.8 aggregate WAR to date on a $12M+ investment. However, 2016 1st rounder Lewis could change that in a hurry if he builds on his strong 18-game ML debut in 2019. Seattle’s first pick from 2015, 2nd rounder Nick Neidert, is now with Miami where he ranks No. 11 in their system and profiles as a mid- to back-of-the-rotation starter. One thing in particular that stands out about the 2015-17 drafts for the Mariners is the number of mid- to low-round picks who have produced in their pro careers and are now among the top 30 prospects in the organization. 2015 selections Art Warren (23rd round) and Ljay Newsome (26th round) rank Nos. 25 and 28 respectively. 2016 18th rounder Robert Duggar ranks No. 23 in the Marlins’ system and 2017 23rd rounder Sam Deplane ranks No. 30 for the Mariners. Additionally, 2016 5th rounder Donnie Walton and 13th rounder Reggie McClain were both college seniors who reached the big leagues in 2019. Walton currently ranks No. 27 in Seattle’s system. In all cases, it’s likely the result of a scouting director empowering his area scouts, something not done often enough these days. 2017 1st rounder Evan White recently signed a historic ML contract and projects to have everyday big league value with Gold Glove caliber defense as his top tool. Other 2017 selections ranking in the organization’s top 25 include 2nd rounder Sam Carlson, 3rd rounder Wyatt Mills, and 4th rounder Seth Elledge.

TEXAS RANGERS (Scouting Director Kip Fagg)
2015 (list): 1st Round, 4th Overall Dylan Tate. Current WAR: -0.2
Individual WAR Leader: Jeffrey Springs, 30th Round. Current WAR: 0.6
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.8
MLers to Date: 6 (Tate, Dylan Moore, Peter Fairbanks, Scott Heineman, Springs, CD Pelham)
Signing Bonuses Total: $10.73M

2016 (list): 1st Round  30th Overall Cole Ragans. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $6.86M

2017 (list): 1st Round, 26th Overall Bubba Thompson. Current WAR: 0.0
                                         29th Overall Chris Seise. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A 
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
Total MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $8.95M

TOTALS (2015-17):  WAR: 0.8   MLers: 6   BONUSES: $26.54M

RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $33.18M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 24th overall)

SUMMARY: $33.2M doesn’t get you what it used to, but $8.95M of that in 2017 did buy some high ceiling prospects with 1st rounders Thompson, Seise and 2nd rounder Hans Crouse. Crouse currently ranks as the No. 78 prospect in MLB, while Thompson is No. 8 in the Rangers’ system. Seise tore his left labrum and missed most of the 2019 season after sitting out all of 2018 with right shoulder surgery. He now ranks No. 20 in the Rangers’ system. 2015 1st rounder Tate (now with Baltimore) was a bust at 4th overall, but in fairness he was one of the top arms available in a poor year for talent from the 2015 draft. High risk 2015 2nd rounder, Eric Jenkins, a prep outfield prospect from North Carolina hasn’t hit and is still in A-ball. Another high risk pick due to health (chronic back issues and coming off TJ surgery) was college 3rd rounder Michael Matuella. He has pitched only 171 innings during his five-year pro career and continues to battle injuries and command issues. Ironically, the Rangers’ current top prospects from 2015 are all from the later rounds (likely area scout picks). They include 9th rounder Peter Fairbanks (now with Tampa Bay), 11th rounder Scott Heineman, 16th rounder Tyler Phillips, 30th rounder Jeffrey Springs and 33rd rounder CD Pelham. Unfortunately, the Rangers’ 2016 draft is lackluster as well. It has been ravaged by injuries. 1st rounder Cole Ragans has undergone two TJ surgeries since his selection at 30th overall. 2nd rounder Alex Speas had TJ in 2018 and returned in 2019 to pitch one inning. 5th rounder Kyle Roberts developed the “yips”, pitched just five innings in his pro career and was released this past March. 6th rounder Kyle Cody also received TJ surgery in 2018 and missed all of the 2019 season as a result. The lone survivor is 7th rounder Sam Huff, a prep catcher from Arizona. He currently ranks as the No. 73 prospect in MLB. No other Texas 2016 draft pick currently ranks in the organization’s top 30, nor have any of them reached the big leagues to date. Overall, the system has been stricken with injuries to many of its top picks, but hope remains for return on their $33.2M investment with Crouse, Huff, Thompson and a healthy Seise leading the way.

*Negative WAR is not used to calculate total WAR. For any WAR value less than zero, 0.0 is used to calculate a team’s total WAR.