Concluding our Draft Review series with the American League West, the division has collectively produced 85 Major Leaguers and a 82.8 bWAR from the 2017-2021 draft classes. These totals place the division first in return on investment, second in total WAR and second in the number of Major Leaguers produced when compared with the six MLB divisions.

Divisional Rankings:

1. AL Central (100.7 WAR / 95 ML'ers / $2.654M per 1.0 WAR, ROI)
2. AL West (82.8 / 85 / $2.569M)
3. NL Central (80.6 / 81 / $3.005M)
4. AL East (79.1 / 62 / $2.977M)
5. NL West (68.1 / 84 / $3.554M)
6. NL East (53.1 / 71 / $4.270M)

The Astros set the pace in the West with the top two individual WAR producers. The Mariners post three of the top six, while the Angels have been sneaky good with three of the top eight.

AL West Individual Leaders:

1. Jeremy Peña (Astros, 8.7 WAR)
2. Chas McCormick (Astros, 7.2)
3. Logan Gilbert (Mariners, 7.1)
4. Cal Raleigh (Mariners, 6.6)
5. Kyle Bradish (Angels, 5.4)
6. George Kirby (Mariners, 5.3)
7. Griffin Canning (Angels, 4.5)
8. Reid Detmers (Angels, 4.3)

For the complete MLB rankings, please see our MLB Draft Review from January 9.

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HOUSTON ASTROS

+ 2017 MLB Draft:

• First Round: J.B. Bukauskas (-0.9 WAR), No. 15 overall.
• WAR Leader: Chas McCormick (7.2 WAR; 21st round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 14.7
• ML’ers to Date: 13 (Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, Joe Perez, JJ Matijevic, Tyler Ivey, Peter Solomon, Brandon Bielak, Michael Papierski, Cory Julks, Parker Mushinski, Jake Meyers, McCormick, Josh Rojas)
• Signing Bonuses: $10.44M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Seth Beer (-0.8 WAR), No. 28 overall.
• WAR Leader: Jeremy Peña (8.7 WAR; 3rd round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 10.2
  ML’ers to Date: 6 (Beer, Pena, Cesar Salazar, Shawn Dubin, JP France, David Hensley)
• Signing Bonuses: $6.49M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Korey Lee (-1.1 WAR), No. 32 overall.
• WAR Leader: Hunter Brown (0.9 WAR; 5th round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.9
• ML’ers to Date: 4 (Lee, Grae Kessinger, Brown, Peyton Battlefield)
• Signing Bonuses: $6.46M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: None.
• WAR Leader: N/A
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.0
• ML’ers to Date: 0
• Signing Bonuses: $2.28M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: None.
• WAR Leader: N/A
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.0
• ML’ers to Date: 0
• Signing Bonuses: $3.43M

+ 2017-21 TOTALS

• WAR: 25.8
• ML’ers: 23
• Bonuses: $29.1M
• Return on Investment: $1.13M per 1.0 WAR (ranks No. 1 overall)

SUMMARY: Major League production by draft picks continues to roll in Houston. The Astros rank No. 1 overall on the return of their investment and the number of Major Leaguers. But, as good as they’ve been, just think if they would have hit on any of their 1st round picks from 2017-2019; J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, Korey Lee. Now add to the mix with Houston not having 1st round picks in either 2020 or 2021 and you start to understand how special their secret sauce has been with identifying, drafting and developing so many of their mid and late round picks. The leader of their late round success is undoubtedly Chas McCormick, an outfielder from Division II Millersville (PA). McCormick has produced a 7.2 career WAR to date. And it doesn’t stop there with more late round producers that include 26th round INF Josh Rojas (3.9 WAR), 14th round RHP JP France (1.5) and 13th round OF Jake Meyers (3.3).

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LOS ANGELES ANGELS

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Jo Adell (-1.4 WAR), No. 10 overall.
• WAR Leader: Griffin Canning (4.5 WAR; 2nd round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: WAR: 4.5
• ML’ers to Date: 5 (Adell, Canning, Isaac Mattson, Jeremy Beasley, David MacKinnon)
• Signing Bonuses: $9.26M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Jordyn Adams (-0.7 WAR), No. 17 overall.
• WAR Leader: Kyle Bradish (5.4 WAR; 4th Round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 7.9
• ML’ers to Date: 6 (Adams, Bradish, Austin Warren, Andrew Wantz, Cooper Criswell, Kyler Tyler)
• Signing Bonuses: $8.76M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Will Wilson (N/A), No. 15 overall.
• WAR Leader: Davis Daniel (0.5 WAR; 7th round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.5
• ML’ers to Date: 2 (Kyren Paris, Daniel)
• Signing Bonuses: $9.75M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Reid Detmers (4.3 WAR), No. 10 overall.
• WAR Leader: Detmers
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 4.3
• ML’ers to Date: 1 (Detmers)
• Signing Bonuses: $6.45M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Sam Bachman (0.4 WAR), No. 9 overall.
• WAR Leader: Bachman; Chase Silseth (0.4 WAR; 11th round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.8
• ML’ers to Date: 2 (Bachman, Silseth)
• Signing Bonuses: $10.72M

+ 2017-21 TOTALS

• WAR: 18.0
• ML’ers: 16
• Bonuses: $44.95M
• Return on Investment: $2.50M per 1.0 WAR (ranks No. 11 overall)

SUMMARY: The Halos swung for the fences in 2017 and 2018 by drafting high-ceiling, risky prep talents with each of their 1st round picks, in OF Jo Adell and OF Jordyn Adams, then they switched gears to the safer college picks of INF Will Wilson, LHP Reid Detmers and RHP Sam Bachman. They hit on Detmers, and the jury is still out on Bachman who profiled as a future reliever at the time of his selection at 9th overall. The 2019 draft class looks like a swing-and-miss with the long-since-traded Wilson flopping at the plate and 7th round RHP Davis Daniel looking like the only serviceable Major Leaguer at this point. The Angels top WAR producer from the 2017-2021 drafts has been 4th round RHP Kyle Bradish, but he too was traded early in his pro career to Baltimore where all of his 5.4 career WAR has been produced, including the 4.9 of it during this past MLB season. His total ranks third among all American League pitchers. On a brighter note, though not included in this part of the research, the Halos 1st round picks in 2022 and 2023 have both already reached the Major Leagues. SS Zach Neto produced 1.6 WAR in 86 games and 1B Nolan Schanuel generated a sliver of positive WAR in his first 29 games this past season.

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OAKLAND ATHLETICS

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Austin Beck (N/A), No. 6 overall.
• WAR Leader: Nick Allen (1.3 WAR; 3rd round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 1.3
• ML’ers to Date: 3 (Allen, Greg Deichmann, Mickey McDonald)
• Signing Bonuses: $12.57M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Kyler Murray (N/A), No. 9 overall.
• WAR Leader: Alfonso Rivas (0.9 WAR; 4th Round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.9
• ML’ers to Date: 5 (Hogan Harris, Rivas, Lawrence Butler, Gus Varland, Jonah Bride)
• Signing Bonuses: $10.89M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Logan Davidson (N/A), No. 29 overall.
• WAR Leader: Drew Millas (0.2 WAR; 7th round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.2
• ML’ers to Date: 1 (Millas)
• Signing Bonuses: $6.70M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round:: Tyler Soderstrom (-1.1 WAR), No. 26 overall.
• WAR Leader: Soderstrom
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.0
• ML’ers to Date: 1 (Soderstrom)
• Signing Bonuses: $5.45M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Max Muncy (N/A), No. 25 overall.
• WAR Leader: Zack Gelof (2.2 WAR; 2nd round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 2.8
• ML’ers to Date: 2 (Gelof, Mason Miller)
• Signing Bonuses: $7.20M

+ 2017-21 TOTALS

• WAR: 5.2
• ML’ers: 12
• Bonuses: $42.80M
• Return on Investment: $8.23M per 1.0 WAR (ranks No. 25 overall)

SUMMARY: The Athletics matched the Astros with a 0.0 collective WAR from its 1st round picks in 2017-2021, but that’s where the comparison ends. The A’s total of 12 Major Leaguers ranks 27th and its overall WAR produced ranks 25th. Other than SS Nick Allen and the long-since-traded Alfonso Rivas, the 2017 and 2018 drafts are void of Major League talent. Selected 6th overall in 2017, North Carolina prep OF Austin Beck was signed for a franchise record at the time, $5.3M. Other than a strong year in 2018 in Low-A, he's struggled throughout his minor league career. He missed all of the 2023 season with a torn ACL, elected minor league free agency in November and since signed with the Dodgers. The A’s second 1st rounder from 2017, Kevin Merrell, fared a little better, but he was traded to Kansas City in 2019 and released in 2022 by Minnesota. Oakland swung and missed once again in the 1st round of 2018, selecting Kyler Murray, paying him a $4.67M signing bonus, only to see him bolt to the NFL. The 2019 draft class is also looking like a bust as 7th rounder Drew Millas is the only player selected who has reached the Major Leagues to date. It’s too early to make any final conclusions on the 2020 draft class, but none of the five picks have done much out of the ordinary other than 1st rounder Tyler Soderstrom, who made his Major League debut at the age of 21 this past summer. Overall, the Athletics have zero current MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects from their 2017-2021 draft classes. And with what looks to be four failed 1st round picks in the five years of this review, on top of two more failed picks from 2015 and 2016, the A's current ROI rank at No. 25 doesn't look to have much potential for improvement and is likely to remain near the bottom of the industry for years to come.

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SEATTLE MARINERS

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Evan White (-0.6 WAR), No. 17 overall.
• WAR Leader: JP Sears (3.3 WAR; 4th round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 3.3
• ML’ers to Date: 6 (White, Wyatt Mills, Seth Elledge, Sears, Darren McCaughan, Tommy Romero)
• Signing Bonuses: $7.42M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Logan Gilbert (7.1 WAR), No. 14 overall.
• WAR Leader: Gilbert
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 15.1
• ML’ers to Date: 6 (Gilbert, Cal Raleigh, Michael Plassmeyer, Joey Gerber, Grant Anderson, Penn Murfee)
• Signing Bonuses: $8.65M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: George Kirby (5.3 WAR), No. 20 overall.
• WAR Leader: Kirby
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 8.5
• ML’ers to Date: 6 (Kirby, Brandon Williamson, Isaiah Campbell, Levi Stoudt, Ty Adcock, Cade Marlowe)
• Signing Bonuses: $8.93M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Emerson Hancock (0.2 WAR), No. 6 overall.
• WAR Leader: Hancock
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.2
• ML’ers to Date: 1 (Hancock)
• Signing Bonuses: $9.96M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Harry Ford (N/A), No. 12 overall.
• WAR Leader: Bryce Miller (1.2 WAR; 4th round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 1.8
• ML’ers to Date: 2 (Miller, Bryan Woo)
• Signing Bonuses: $9.36M

+ 2017-21 TOTALS

• WAR: 28.9
• ML’ers: 22
• Bonuses: $44.33M
• Return on Investment: $1.53M per 1.0 WAR (ranks No. 2 overall)

SUMMARY: Seattle started slow in 2017 before beginning their sprint to the top, since that year’s top pick, 1B Evan White, has produced a -0.6 WAR and .165 batting average in 84 games in the Major Leagues. White signed an historic MLB contract before earning a Gold Glove in 2020, but a lack of production at the plate has stalled his big league career. He was traded to Atlanta this past December, then flipped the Angels five days later with two years and $15M remaining on his contract. The top pick from 2018, RHP Logan Gilbert, made his Major League debut in 2021, winning six games in 24 starts and posting a 1.0 WAR. He has not stopped there, accumulating a 7.1 career WAR to date and establishing himself as a valuable innings-eating rotation piece. The M’s 2018 class is further boosted by 3rd rounder Cal Raleigh. The power-hitting backstop has developed into Seattle’s starting catcher, posting back-to-back 3.0-plus WAR seasons and, like Gilbert, he looks poised to continue strong production in the Major Leagues.

Heading back to the college pitching trail, Seattle selected wisely again in 2019 with 1st round RHP George Kirby and 2nd rounders LHP Brandon Williamson and RHP Isaiah Campbell. Each of those arms appear to have Major League staying power. Credit Seattle with knowing their strengths as they again went the college pitching route in 2020 with two of their top three picks. RHP Emerson Hancock was essentially plug-n-play as the 6th overall pick out of the SEC and he made his MLB debut in 2023, making three starts for the big club after 241 innings in the minors.

The Mariners deviated from the college pitching route in 2021 to grab preps with each of its top three picks: C Harry Ford in the 1st round, SS Edwin Arroyo in the 2nd, and RHP Michael Morales in the 3rd. And so far the results have been similar to their five-star college pitching formula. Ford currently ranks as the No. 39 prospect in baseball and Arroyo, traded to Cincinnati, ranks No. 57. Morales has also started strong in his pro career, making 22 starts in Low-A as a 20 year-old last summer. Currently second in MLB to Houston in return on investment and the total number of Major Leaguers produced, Seattle is poised to anchor the top spot, along with the Arizona Diamondbacks, in short order and for a long time. Like Arizona, Seattle’s elite scouting and player development staffs are currently clicking on all cylinders.

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TEXAS RANGERS

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Bubba Thompson (-0.3 WAR), No. 26 overall.
• WAR Leader: John King (0.6 WAR; 10th round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.8
• ML’ers to Date: 6 (Thompson, Hans Crouse, Jake Latz, King, Nick Snyder, Ryan Dorow)
• Signing Bonuses: $8.95M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Cole Winn (N/A), No. 15 overall.
• WAR Leader: Jon Ornelas (0.0 WAR; 3rd round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.0
• ML’ers to Date: 3 (Owen White, Ornelas, Mason Englert)
• Signing Bonuses: $9.18M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Josh Jung (2.4 WAR), No. 8 overall.
• WAR Leader: Jung
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 2.5
• ML’ers to Date: 2 (Jung, Cody Bradford)
• Signing Bonuses: $12.86M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Justin Foscue (N/A), No. 14 overall.
• WAR Leader: Evan Carter (1.6 WAR; 2nd round)
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 1.6
• ML’ers to Date: 1 (Carter)
• Signing Bonuses: $7.28M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Jack Leiter (N/A), No. 2 overall.
• WAR Leader: N/A
• All Draftees Combined WAR: 0.0
• ML’ers to Date: 0
• Signing Bonuses: $13.36M

+ 2017-21 TOTALS

• WAR: 4.9
• ML’ers: 12
• Bonuses: $51.62M
• Return on Investment: $10.54M per 1.0 WAR (ranks No. 27 overall)

SUMMARY: With over $51M spent on draft bonuses, the Rangers appear to have missed a golden opportunity to cash in on that investment. However, as we all know, this did not keep them from winning the most recent World Series. Also, as has been previously stated, success at the Major League level is a team effort: a function of not only draft & development, but also professional scouting, international scouting, analytics and good old-fashioned human decision-making skills. In the Rangers’ case only three players drafted and developed by them were on their World Series roster (Cory Bradford, Josh Jung, Evan Carter). Otherwise, the cupboard is pretty bare with both the 2017 and 2018 draft classes looking empty as 2017 1st round OF Bubba Thompson still has some waiver-claim value with his top of the charts speed, but bottom of the scale rating with in-game exit velocity and a 30% career K rate. 2018 1st round RHP Cole Winn has pitched 377 innings in Triple-A, but with it has come a 6.71 ERA.

Overall, Texas went on an ultra-risky route by selecting preps with their top three picks in 2017 and their top five picks in 2018. That high-risk, potentially higher-return strategy has backfired as none of those eight picks have produced a positive return at the Major League level. Now, the good news. Josh Jung alone has the potential to make the 2019 draft class. The 2023 MLB All-Star finished 4th in voting for AL Rookie of the Year after leading AL third basemen in Fielding% and Range Factor. The 2020 1st round INF, Justin Foscue, hasn’t yet lived up to the expectations that made him the 14th overall selection, but the Rangers 2nd round pick, and 50th overall selection, Evan Carter has. After posting a 1.6 WAR in just 23 games during his rookie season, Carter did not play enough to lose his prospect status. He currently ranks No. 8 on the MLB Pipeline Top 100.

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