Which teams struck gold within the MLB Draft between the years of 2017 and 2021? Which teams were fooled? The results of a deeper dive into those draft classes are quite fascinating.

We will have team-by-team analyses in the days ahead, published in stories broken down by division in the following order:

• NL Central
• NL East 
• NL West
• AL Central
• AL East
• AL West

THE STUDY

Rather than taking a subjective approach to ranking organizational draft classes, we've decided to look back at some recent drafts through an analytical lens using WAR. The "official" definition of WAR can be found here on MLB’s own website. Loosely defined, it is an equalizing statistic that places an overall value derived from all areas of the game (offense, defense, baserunning, pitching) for both position players and pitchers. It is also adjusted by position, ballparks and over the periods of juiced and dead ball eras. It’s not the perfect measuring stick (nothing is) but WAR is the best objective look that the industry has to offer at this point in time.

While each Major League organization utilizes its own proprietary calculation for WAR, there are two public outfits that each produce their own valuations – Baseball-Reference (typically referred to as bWAR) and FanGraphs (fWAR). For purposes of this research, we utilized the calculations provided by Baseball-Reference.

The Houston Astros have established themselves as the leader in draft and development which has led to a decade-long run into the postseason, four World Series appearances and two titles. However, similar to other professional sports leagues, industry reputation can vary from the actual results produced by an organization’s scouting and player development staff. Clubs like the Mariners and Diamondbacks may deserve more credit for their production. The Padres, Nationals and Pirates perhaps receive too much – at least based on the findings of this five-year research. By way of example, the Nationals have drafted and developed only three players from their 2017-2021 drafts who have produced a positive WAR total. The Giants have produced a few more, totaling seven, but none have produced a WAR greater than 1.0. One could argue that they would have been better off signing all six-year minor league free agents for potential production at the Major League level rather than drafting and developing anyone. And the Pirates – well, we’ll get there – but thank goodness for 2019 second-rounder Jared Triolo, who is their only draftee from 2017-2021 who has produced greater than 0.8 WAR to date.

With all that written, we can't emphasize enough that an organization’s amateur acquisition successes and failures are the product of a joint effort by scouting and player development. The weight of the results do not fall solely on one or the other. You can't make chicken salad out of chicken scraps, as they say, and poor player development can quickly spoil the promise of a young ballplayer.

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QUANTITY OF MAJOR LEAGUERS (2017-2021): The table below focuses on raw counting statistics separated from dollars spent or number of picks allotted to the applicable clubs (and whether those picks were in the front or back of each draft round). In this case, we tallied the total number of draftees from the 2017 through 2021 draft classes that have reached the Major Leagues to this point. Houston and Seattle lead the industry in total numbers. Boston limps along with just seven. The average is 15.9, median is 16.

Houston also leads with the total number of Major Leaguers from a single draft with 13 from their 2017 class. For comparison sake, the next best is nine by four clubs; 2017 Cubs, 2017 Pirates, 2018 Royals, 2018 White Sox.

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QUALITY OF MAJOR LEAGUERS / TOTAL TEAM WAR (2017-2021): Regardless of bonus money spent or draft slots for each team (picking towards the front or back of each round), which clubs have produced the most value from their draft picks to this point?

Individually, the top four WAR producers from the 2017-2021 drafts currently include:

+ Nico Hoerner, 1st round (2018), Cubs: 11.6 WAR
+ Daulton Varsho, 2nd round (2017), Diamondbacks: 10.5 WAR
+ Adley Rutschman, 1st round (2019), Orioles: 9.6 WAR
+ Steven Kwan, 5th round (2018), Guardians: 9.1 WAR

The table below outlines the raw production from each club’s aggregate draft classes from the 2017 through 2021 seasons. Arizona and Seattle lead the industry with top-tier production, while the Mets, Pirates, Giants, and Nationals all face a long, uphill climb.

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TOTAL SIGNING BONUSES (2017-2021): Who had the picks and spent the cash? The below table lays out actual investment through draft pool bonuses. Because the current system has a soft cap in place for spending, and pool allotments distributed to each team are based on the picks available to each team, this should be viewed as an indicator of which teams had the greatest opportunity to leverage the draft from 2017 through 2021. In particular, Pittsburgh let a huge opportunity slip away (with four of the top 72 overall picks in 2017, 2019 and 2021), while Houston (no first round pick in either 2020 or 2021) greatly capitalized on the hand they were dealt.

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RETURN ON INVESTMENT (2017-2021): The granddaddy of our rankings, ROI measures how efficiently an organization has spent its bonus dollars. Anyone can just draft and spend its allotted money, but the best clubs scout efficiently and develop their prospects in a manner that allows them to fully leverage every last dollar spent to maximize return (production by the players at the Major League level).

It’s important to keep in mind that this is just one measure and does not necessarily reflect how well, overall, these teams have drafted. For example, some clubs have so far just “hit” on one player, like the Cubs with Nico Hoerner. Hoerner has accumulated 66 percent of the Cubs’ total WAR (11.6 of 17.7) by himself. Another good example is the Blue Jays’ Alex Manoah who has accumulated 56 percent of Toronto’s WAR returns (7.8 of 13.9) from the 2017-2021 drafts.

Others, like the Reds, have received steady production from most of their top round picks over the dates of this research with 1st rounders Hunter Green (3.1 WAR), Jonathan India (5.2), Nick Lodolo (2.7) and Matt McLain (3.7), as well as 2021 2nd rounder Andrew Abbott (2.7). Also, the Diamondbacks seem to have hit on nearly every top pick from their 2019 class with 2023 NL Rookie of the Year, Corbin Carroll leading the way with 6.6 WAR.

The following table calculates the total WAR for the players selected by each organization then displays the amount of draft dollars spent per 1.0 WAR. Note, this table should be viewed as an indicator of how much money each organization spent in order to produce the same production value for these classes.

We last conducted this exercise in 2022, spanning the 2015-2018 drafts, where the Cardinals, Astros, Dodgers, Guardians and Red Sox comprised the top-five. Today, Houston remains entrenched in the top spot and Cleveland holds serve in the top five. However the Cardinals, Dodgers and Red Sox have all been replaced as the Mariners, Diamondbacks and Braves take their spots.

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