MLB Draft Review: NL Central
December 3, 2019
Leading off with the NL Central, here's an analytical look at how the 2015-2017 draft classes are shaping up using WAR (WAR Defined). All references to a prospect’s overall MLB ranking or ranking within the organization is per MLB Pipeline.
2015 (list): 1st Round 9th Overall Ian Happ. Current WAR: 3.5
Individual WAR Leader: Happ
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 3.5
MLers to Date: 1 (Happ)
Signing Bonuses: $8.34M
2016 (list): 1st Round, NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $2.96M
2017 (list): 1st Round 27th Overall Brendan Little. Current WAR: 0.0
30th Overall Alex Lange. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $8.71M
TOTALS (2015-17) WAR: 3.5 MLers: 1 BONUSES: $20.01M
RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $5.7M per 1.0 WAR (ranks 11th of 30 overall)
SUMMARY: It’s tough to top the consecutive 1st round selections of Javier Baez (2011), Albert Almora (2012), Kris Bryant (2013), Kyle Schwarber (2014) and Ian Happ (2015). But without a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2016 which were forfeited for signing ML free agents John Lackey (1st round) and Jason Heyward (2nd round), it becomes difficult to make an impact. And so far their top selections from the 2017 draft have not impressed, with Little having trouble finding the strike zone consistently and Lange traded to Detroit and immediately moved to the bullpen. Besides Happ, the Cubs 2015-17 drafts have not produced a single Major Leaguer or a Top 100 MLB prospect. The highest rated of all those picks is a former 17th rounder and the current No. 9 prospect in the Cubs system, Zack Short. Although the Cubs rank 11th overall in present ROI and 13th in WAR produced, expect those rankings to fall over the next several years as the entire 3-year package of picks offers little upside. During a recent front office move, the Cubs reassigned Dorey to VP of Player Development where he will now have the responsibility of overseeing the development of the many prospects he brought into the system while Scouting Director.
2015 (list): 1st Round 11th Overall Tyler Stephenson. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Jimmy Herget, 6th Round. Current WAR: 0.1
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.1
MLers to Date: 3 (Herget, Tanner Rainey, Blake Trahan)
Signing Bonuses: $9.02M
2016 (list): 1st Round 2nd Overall. Nick Senzel. Current WAR 0.6
Individual WAR Leader: Senzel
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.6
MLers to Date: 2 (Senzel, Joel Kuhnel)
Signing Bonuses: $14.68M
2017 (list): 1st Round 2nd Overall. Hunter Green. Current WAR: 0.0
32nd Overall. Jeter
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $14.78M
TOTALS (2015-17) WAR: 0.7 MLers: 5 BONUSES: $38.48M
SUMMARY: Stephenson has taken some time to develop, but now looks like he's on his way to a ML career after recent success in both Double-A and the Arizona Fall League. At 2nd overall in 2016 Senzel was regarded by the industry as the best available and he's just started what looks to be a sustained Major League career. Taylor Trammell (selected 35th overall in 2016) is a MLB Top 100 Prospect at No. 22, while the other most promising prospects are 2017 top selections Green (ranked No. 49) and Downs (ranked No. 87).
2015 (list): 1st Round, 15th Overall. Trent Grisham. Current WAR 0.7
Individual WAR Leader: Grisham
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.7
MLers to Date: 2 (Grisham, Hanhold)
Signing Bonuses: $8.35M
2016 (list): 1st Round, 5th Overall Corey Ray. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Corbin Burnes, 4th Round. Current WAR: -1.5
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (Burnes)
Signing Bonuses: $11.14M
2017 (list): 1st Round, 9th Overall Keston Huira. Current WAR: 2.1
Individual WAR Leader: Huira
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 2.1
MLers to Date: 1
Signing Bonuses: $12.22M
TOTALS (2015-17) WAR: 2.8 MLers: 4 BONUSES: $31.71M
SUMMARY: Huira looks like the steal of the 2017 draft. When other organizations shied away from his injury, the Brewers found opportunity and were rewarded less than two years later as Huira has emerged as one of the best young bats in baseball. 2015 1st rounder Grisham broke out this season in a 34-game Triple-A stint and reached the Major Leagues after three nondescript years in the minors. The remainder of the 2015 draft class projects to produce little else as Nathan Kirby (selected 40th overall) missed all of the 2019 season with more injuries after also missing all of the 2016 and 2017 seasons and Cody Ponce (selected 55th overall) hasn't developed as predicted. 2016 may provide a modest return with Zack Brown (5th round), Ray and Mario Feliciano (2nd round) ranking 3rd, 4th and 8th, respectively, in the Brewer's system.
2015 (list): 1st Round, 19th Overall Kevin Newman. Current WAR: 2.2
Individual WAR Leader: Newman
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 2.5*
MLers to Date: 6 (Newman, Kevin Kramer, Tanner Anderson, John Bormann, James Marvel, Daniel Zamora)
Signing Bonuses: $8.49M
2016 (list): 1st Round, 22nd Overall Will Craig. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Geoff Hartlieb, 29th Round. Current WAR -0.9
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0*
MLers to Date: 1 (Hartlieb)
Signing Bonuses: $6.47M
2017 (list): 1st Round, 12th Overall Shane Baz. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $11.89M
TOTALS (2015-17) WAR: 2.5 MLers: 7 BONUSES: $26.85M
SUMMARY: In the down draft year of 2015, Newman looks like an astute pick, while in that same year, 40th rounder Daniel Zamora has put together a 0.3 career WAR to date. With five of the top 88 picks in the 2017 draft, 1st rounder Baz continues to rise in the rankings, currently sitting at No. 94 in MLB; he was dealt to Tampa Bay this past August as part of the Chris Archer trade. Connor Uselton (selected 77th overall) and Dylan Busby (selected 88th overall) have done little thus far in their pro careers, while Steven Jennings (selected 42nd overall) and Calvin Mitchell (selected 50th overall) both rank in the Pirate's Top 20 prospects.
2015 (list): 1st Round, 23rd Overall Nick Plummer. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Paul DeJong, 4th Round. Current WAR: 10.6
2015 Draft Totals: WAR: 18.0
MLers to Date: 4 (Harrison Bader,
Signing Bonuses: $8.25M
2016 (list): 1st Round 23rd Overall Delvin Perez. Current WAR: 0.0
Individual WAR Leader: Tommy Edman, 6th Round. Current WAR: 3.8
2016 Draft Totals: WAR: 9.0
MLers to Date: 4 (Dakota Hudson, Zac Gallen, Edman, Andrew Knizner
Signing Bonuses: $10.49M
2017 (list): 1st Round, NO PICK
Individual WAR Leader: N/A
2017 Draft Totals: WAR: 0.0
MLers to Date: 0
Signing Bonuses: $3.34M
TOTALS (2015-17) WAR: 27.0 MLers: 8 BONUSES: $22.08M
RETURN ON INVESTMENT: $818,000 per 1.0 WAR (ranks 1st overall)
SUMMARY: Currently sitting at No. 1 overall as the most efficient amateur drafting club in baseball, the Cardinals should have plenty more WAR coming in the future. If it were not for 1st round misses on Plummer and Perez, the Redbirds would have an even greater distance between them and No. 2 Houston. After whiffing on two of their first three picks (Plummer,
NOTE: *Negative WAR is not used to calculate total WAR. For any WAR value less than zero, 0.0 is used to calculate a team’s total WAR.