Prep Baseball Report

Mesa Preseason ID: Pitching Data Dive


Cam Black-Araujo
Arizona Operations

On Wednesday, January 31st, the Prep Baseball Arizona staff hosted it's third and final Preseason ID of the season with the Mesa Preseason ID at Desert Ridge High School in Mesa, Arizona. This event featured 29 prospects from the 2024 - 2027 classes and allowed our staff an opportunity to get an in-depth look and analysis of the players in attendance.

Earlier this week, we broke down the top measurable data performers from the event with our Statistical Analysis and Quick Hits articles. Now, we will take a further in-depth look at the top pitchers with the help of our tech partnerships, broken down by the categories down below:

For complete event results, click here.
To view upcoming event schedule, click here.

FASTBALL

MAX VELOCITY (MPH)

Rank Name State School Class Pos Velocity (max)
1 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 86.0 mph
2 Thomas Pascanu AZ Sandra Day O'Connor 2026 LHP 84.3 mph
3 Jaxon Valdez AZ Williams Field 2025 1B 82.0 mph
4 Clay Wicker AZ Casteel 2025 OF 82.0 mph
5 Luke Rylee AZ Chandler 2025 OF 80.7 mph

Max Fastball Velocity: This metric calculates the speed of the pitch as it’s released from the pitcher’s hand.

SPIN RATE (AVG)

Rank Name State School Class Pos Spin Rate (avg)
1 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 2283 rpm
2 Malcolm Harrison AZ Williams Field 2025 RHP 2245 rpm
3 Thomas Pascanu AZ Sandra Day O'Connor 2026 LHP 2224 rpm
4 Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP 2214 rpm
5 Jaxon Valdez AZ Williams Field 2025 1B 2132 rpm

Spin Rate: This metric calculates the rate of spin on the baseball as it leaves the pitcher’s hand, measured in revolutions per minute (rpm). Historical data shows that high-spin fastballs lessen the impact of gravity, allowing for more ‘rise’ (or less fall, in other words) as it carries through the zone. Low-spin fastballs typically indicate the pitch has greater horizontal action, often making it tougher to square up, but generally easier to make contact with, leading to more ground balls, while high-spin fastballs show a correlation with swings and misses.

INDUCED VERTICAL BREAK (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos IVB (avg)
1 Duke Henrie AZ Mountain View High School 2027 OF 23.3 in
2 Brady Ward AZ Basha 2026 RHP 19.1 in
3 Andrew Romo AZ Walden Grove 2025 OF 17.7 in
4 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 17.3 in
5 Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP 16.8 in

Induced Vertical Break: Used in short form as "IVB," this metric is most important on fastballs for creating rise and on curveballs for creating depth – it can also have some use when measuring sliders and cutters as well. Sliders tend to be closer to zero inches while cutters are generally between 5 and 15 inches. Usually fastballs and curveballs with large IVB have higher spin efficiencies as well. Sliders generally have very little (closer to zero) IVB and very low spin efficiency. You could also categorize IVB into spin rate as this is part of the “useful movement” you’re looking for. IVB is also a huge part of the vertical approach angle.

HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos HM (avg)
1 Gavin Daniels AZ Desert Mountain 2027 LHP -13.6
2 Brady Ward AZ Basha 2026 RHP 12.9
3 Clay Wicker AZ Casteel 2025 OF -12.5
4 Thomas Pascanu AZ Sandra Day O'Connor 2026 LHP -11.5
5 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 11.4

Horizontal Break: Outlined on TrackMan’s own website: “... horizontal movement is measured in inches between where the pitch actually crosses the front of home plate side-wise, and where it would have crossed home plate side-wise if had it traveled in a perfectly straight line from release. A positive number means the break was to the right from the pitcher’s perspective, while a negative number means the break was to the left from the pitcher’s perspective.”

STRIKE ZONE RATE%

Rank Name State School Class Pos Zone %
1 Jacob Gooding AZ Hamilton 2026 OF 66 %
^ PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 66 %
2 Andrew Romo AZ Walden Grove 2025 OF 50 %
^ Malcolm Harrison AZ Williams Field 2025 RHP 50 %
^ Jaxon Valdez AZ Williams Field 2025 1B 50 %
^ Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP 50 %
^ Kelson Hogan AZ Corona del Sol 2027 RHP 50 %

CURVEBALL

SPIN RATE (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos Spin Rate (avg)
1 Fabricio Castillo AZ Perry 2024 RHP 2455 rpm
2 Malcolm Harrison AZ Williams Field 2025 RHP 2274 rpm
3 Clay Wicker AZ Casteel 2025 OF 2262 rpm
4 Andrew Romo AZ Walden Grove 2025 OF 2212 rpm
5 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 2148 rpm

INDUCED VERTICAL BREAK (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos IVB (avg)
1 Duke Henrie AZ Mountain View High School 2027 OF 23.3 in
2 Brady Ward AZ Basha 2026 RHP 19.1 in
3 Andrew Romo AZ Walden Grove 2025 OF 17.7 in
4 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 17.3 in
5 Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP 16.8 in

HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos HM (avg)
1 Kelson Hogan AZ Corona del Sol 2027 RHP -13.6
2 Clay Wicker AZ Casteel 2025 OF 8.3
3 Fabricio Castillo AZ Perry 2024 RHP -8.1
4 Andrew Romo AZ Walden Grove 2025 OF 6.3
5 Malcolm Harrison AZ Williams Field 2025 RHP -5.3

STRIKE ZONE %

Rank Name State School Class Pos HM (avg)
1 Kelson Hogan AZ Corona del Sol 2027 RHP -13.6
2 Clay Wicker AZ Casteel 2025 OF 8.3

SLIDER

SPIN RATE (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos Spin Rate (avg)
1 Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP 2434
2 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 2289
3 Malcolm Harrison AZ Williams Field 2025 RHP 2184
4 Kelson Hogan AZ Corona del Sol 2027 RHP 2146
5 Gavin Daniels AZ Desert Mountain 2027 LHP 2036

INDUCED VERTICAL BREAK (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos IVB (avg)
1 Duke Henrie AZ Mountain View High School 2027 OF 23.8 in
2 Luke Rylee AZ Chandler 2025 OF 10.6 in
3 Jaxon Valdez AZ Williams Field 2025 1B 5.4 in
4 Clay Wicker AZ Casteel 2025 OF -5.2 in
5 Gavin Daniels AZ Desert Mountain 2027 LHP -3.5 in

HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos HM (avg)
1 Jacob Gooding AZ Hamilton 2026 OF -10.5
2 Malcolm Harrison AZ Williams Field 2025 RHP -10.4
3 Kelson Hogan AZ Corona del Sol 2027 RHP -7.1
4 Gavin Daniels AZ Desert Mountain 2027 LHP 6.3
5 Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP -6.0

STRIKE ZONE RATE%

Rank Name State School Class Pos Zone %
1 Kelson Hogan AZ Corona del Sol 2027 RHP 100 %
^ Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP 100 %
2 Luke Rylee AZ Chandler 2025 OF 80 %
^ Malcolm Harrison AZ Williams Field 2025 RHP 80 %
3 Jaxon Valdez AZ Williams Field 2025 1B 71 %

CHANGEUP

HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)

Rank Name State School Class Pos HM (avg)
1 Clay Wicker AZ Casteel 2025 OF -15.8
2 PJ Rafford AZ Seton Catholic 2025 RHP 14.3
3 Thomas Pascanu AZ Sandra Day O'Connor 2026 LHP -12.7
4 Austin Coates AZ Thunderbird 2025 RHP 12.6
5 Gavin Daniels AZ Desert Mountain 2027 LHP -12.3

STRIKE ZONE RATE%

Rank Name State School Class Pos Zone %
1 Austin Coates AZ Thunderbird 2025 RHP 75 %
^ Kelson Hogan AZ Corona del Sol 2027 RHP 75 %
2 Andrew Bromley AZ Desert Ridge 2025 RHP 66 %
3 Fabricio Castillo AZ Perry 2024 RHP 50 %
^ Gavin Daniels AZ Desert Mountain 2027 LHP 50 %

UPCOMING EVENTS

SHOWCASE STATE DATE LOCATION
Preseason All-State Games: Upperclass (Invite-Only) AZ 02/03 Cactus Shadows High School - Scottsdale, AZ
Super 60 Pro Showcase NATIONAL 02/04 The MAX - McCook, IL
Arizona Rising Stars ID AZ 04/13 Grand Canyon University - Phoenix, AZ
Arizona Rising Stars ID - Session 2 AZ 04/27 Grand Canyon University - Phoenix, AZ

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