Mesa Preseason ID: Pitching Data Dive
February 3, 2024
On Wednesday, January 31st, the Prep Baseball Arizona staff hosted it's third and final Preseason ID of the season with the Mesa Preseason ID at Desert Ridge High School in Mesa, Arizona. This event featured 29 prospects from the 2024 - 2027 classes and allowed our staff an opportunity to get an in-depth look and analysis of the players in attendance.
Earlier this week, we broke down the top measurable data performers from the event with our Statistical Analysis and Quick Hits articles. Now, we will take a further in-depth look at the top pitchers with the help of our tech partnerships, broken down by the categories down below:
For complete event results, click here.
To view upcoming event schedule, click here.
FASTBALL
MAX VELOCITY (MPH)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | Velocity (max) |
1 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 86.0 mph |
2 | Thomas Pascanu | AZ | Sandra Day O'Connor | 2026 | LHP | 84.3 mph |
3 | Jaxon Valdez | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | 1B | 82.0 mph |
4 | Clay Wicker | AZ | Casteel | 2025 | OF | 82.0 mph |
5 | Luke Rylee | AZ | Chandler | 2025 | OF | 80.7 mph |
Max Fastball Velocity: This metric calculates the speed of the pitch as it’s released from the pitcher’s hand.
SPIN RATE (AVG)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | Spin Rate (avg) |
1 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 2283 rpm |
2 | Malcolm Harrison | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | RHP | 2245 rpm |
3 | Thomas Pascanu | AZ | Sandra Day O'Connor | 2026 | LHP | 2224 rpm |
4 | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | 2214 rpm |
5 | Jaxon Valdez | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | 1B | 2132 rpm |
Spin Rate: This metric calculates the rate of spin on the baseball as it leaves the pitcher’s hand, measured in revolutions per minute (rpm). Historical data shows that high-spin fastballs lessen the impact of gravity, allowing for more ‘rise’ (or less fall, in other words) as it carries through the zone. Low-spin fastballs typically indicate the pitch has greater horizontal action, often making it tougher to square up, but generally easier to make contact with, leading to more ground balls, while high-spin fastballs show a correlation with swings and misses.
INDUCED VERTICAL BREAK (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | IVB (avg) |
1 | Duke Henrie | AZ | Mountain View High School | 2027 | OF | 23.3 in |
2 | Brady Ward | AZ | Basha | 2026 | RHP | 19.1 in |
3 | Andrew Romo | AZ | Walden Grove | 2025 | OF | 17.7 in |
4 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 17.3 in |
5 | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | 16.8 in |
Induced Vertical Break: Used in short form as "IVB," this metric is most important on fastballs for creating rise and on curveballs for creating depth – it can also have some use when measuring sliders and cutters as well. Sliders tend to be closer to zero inches while cutters are generally between 5 and 15 inches. Usually fastballs and curveballs with large IVB have higher spin efficiencies as well. Sliders generally have very little (closer to zero) IVB and very low spin efficiency. You could also categorize IVB into spin rate as this is part of the “useful movement” you’re looking for. IVB is also a huge part of the vertical approach angle.
HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | HM (avg) |
1 | Gavin Daniels | AZ | Desert Mountain | 2027 | LHP | -13.6 |
2 | Brady Ward | AZ | Basha | 2026 | RHP | 12.9 |
3 | Clay Wicker | AZ | Casteel | 2025 | OF | -12.5 |
4 | Thomas Pascanu | AZ | Sandra Day O'Connor | 2026 | LHP | -11.5 |
5 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 11.4 |
Horizontal Break: Outlined on TrackMan’s own website: “... horizontal movement is measured in inches between where the pitch actually crosses the front of home plate side-wise, and where it would have crossed home plate side-wise if had it traveled in a perfectly straight line from release. A positive number means the break was to the right from the pitcher’s perspective, while a negative number means the break was to the left from the pitcher’s perspective.”
STRIKE ZONE RATE%
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | Zone % |
1 | Jacob Gooding | AZ | Hamilton | 2026 | OF | 66 % |
^ | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 66 % |
2 | Andrew Romo | AZ | Walden Grove | 2025 | OF | 50 % |
^ | Malcolm Harrison | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | RHP | 50 % |
^ | Jaxon Valdez | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | 1B | 50 % |
^ | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | 50 % |
^ | Kelson Hogan | AZ | Corona del Sol | 2027 | RHP | 50 % |
CURVEBALL
SPIN RATE (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | Spin Rate (avg) |
1 | Fabricio Castillo | AZ | Perry | 2024 | RHP | 2455 rpm |
2 | Malcolm Harrison | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | RHP | 2274 rpm |
3 | Clay Wicker | AZ | Casteel | 2025 | OF | 2262 rpm |
4 | Andrew Romo | AZ | Walden Grove | 2025 | OF | 2212 rpm |
5 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 2148 rpm |
INDUCED VERTICAL BREAK (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | IVB (avg) |
1 | Duke Henrie | AZ | Mountain View High School | 2027 | OF | 23.3 in |
2 | Brady Ward | AZ | Basha | 2026 | RHP | 19.1 in |
3 | Andrew Romo | AZ | Walden Grove | 2025 | OF | 17.7 in |
4 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 17.3 in |
5 | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | 16.8 in |
HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | HM (avg) |
1 | Kelson Hogan | AZ | Corona del Sol | 2027 | RHP | -13.6 |
2 | Clay Wicker | AZ | Casteel | 2025 | OF | 8.3 |
3 | Fabricio Castillo | AZ | Perry | 2024 | RHP | -8.1 |
4 | Andrew Romo | AZ | Walden Grove | 2025 | OF | 6.3 |
5 | Malcolm Harrison | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | RHP | -5.3 |
STRIKE ZONE %
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | HM (avg) |
1 | Kelson Hogan | AZ | Corona del Sol | 2027 | RHP | -13.6 |
2 | Clay Wicker | AZ | Casteel | 2025 | OF | 8.3 |
SLIDER
SPIN RATE (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | Spin Rate (avg) |
1 | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | 2434 |
2 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 2289 |
3 | Malcolm Harrison | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | RHP | 2184 |
4 | Kelson Hogan | AZ | Corona del Sol | 2027 | RHP | 2146 |
5 | Gavin Daniels | AZ | Desert Mountain | 2027 | LHP | 2036 |
INDUCED VERTICAL BREAK (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | IVB (avg) |
1 | Duke Henrie | AZ | Mountain View High School | 2027 | OF | 23.8 in |
2 | Luke Rylee | AZ | Chandler | 2025 | OF | 10.6 in |
3 | Jaxon Valdez | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | 1B | 5.4 in |
4 | Clay Wicker | AZ | Casteel | 2025 | OF | -5.2 in |
5 | Gavin Daniels | AZ | Desert Mountain | 2027 | LHP | -3.5 in |
HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | HM (avg) |
1 | Jacob Gooding | AZ | Hamilton | 2026 | OF | -10.5 |
2 | Malcolm Harrison | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | RHP | -10.4 |
3 | Kelson Hogan | AZ | Corona del Sol | 2027 | RHP | -7.1 |
4 | Gavin Daniels | AZ | Desert Mountain | 2027 | LHP | 6.3 |
5 | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | -6.0 |
STRIKE ZONE RATE%
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | Zone % |
1 | Kelson Hogan | AZ | Corona del Sol | 2027 | RHP | 100 % |
^ | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | 100 % |
2 | Luke Rylee | AZ | Chandler | 2025 | OF | 80 % |
^ | Malcolm Harrison | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | RHP | 80 % |
3 | Jaxon Valdez | AZ | Williams Field | 2025 | 1B | 71 % |
CHANGEUP
HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT (AVG.)
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | HM (avg) |
1 | Clay Wicker | AZ | Casteel | 2025 | OF | -15.8 |
2 | PJ Rafford | AZ | SETON CATHOLIC PREPARATORY HIGH SCHOOL | 2025 | RHP | 14.3 |
3 | Thomas Pascanu | AZ | Sandra Day O'Connor | 2026 | LHP | -12.7 |
4 | Austin Coates | AZ | Thunderbird | 2025 | RHP | 12.6 |
5 | Gavin Daniels | AZ | Desert Mountain | 2027 | LHP | -12.3 |
STRIKE ZONE RATE%
Rank | Name | State | School | Class | Pos | Zone % |
1 | Austin Coates | AZ | Thunderbird | 2025 | RHP | 75 % |
^ | Kelson Hogan | AZ | Corona del Sol | 2027 | RHP | 75 % |
2 | Andrew Bromley | AZ | Desert Ridge High | 2025 | RHP | 66 % |
3 | Fabricio Castillo | AZ | Perry | 2024 | RHP | 50 % |
^ | Gavin Daniels | AZ | Desert Mountain | 2027 | LHP | 50 % |
UPCOMING EVENTS
SHOWCASE | STATE | DATE | LOCATION |
Preseason All-State Games: Upperclass (Invite-Only) | AZ | 02/03 | Cactus Shadows High School - Scottsdale, AZ |
Super 60 Pro Showcase | NATIONAL | 02/04 | The MAX - McCook, IL |
Arizona Rising Stars ID | AZ | 04/13 | Grand Canyon University - Phoenix, AZ |
Arizona Rising Stars ID - Session 2 | AZ | 04/27 | Grand Canyon University - Phoenix, AZ |
RECENT NEWS
- AZ Underclass Top Prospects Games: Positional Data Dive 6/15/24
- AZ Underclass Top Prospect Games: Pitching Data Dive 6/14/24
- AZ Upperclass Top Prospect Games: Positional Data Dive 6/09/24
- AZ Upper Class Top Prospect: Quick Hits 6/08/24
- AZ Upperclass Top Prospect Games: Pitching Data Dive 6/07/24
- AZ Upperclass Top Prospect Games: Statistical Analysis 6/05/24
- AZ Mesa Summer ID: Positional Data Dive 6/02/24
- AZ Mesa Summer ID: Pitching Data Dive 6/02/24