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2024 MLB Draft Lottery, Primer

December 5, 2023
By Andy Sroka
Managing Editor, Scouting

 

This time last year, Major League Baseball hosted its inaugural Draft Lottery, where the teams that own the three worst records from the past season have equal odds to receive the No. 1 overall pick in the lottery. From there, the remaining non-playoff teams eligible for the lottery are given descending odds, ordered from lowest winning percentage to the highest.

We’ll learn the order of the 2024 MLB Draft following the second annual lottery, taking place later today.

There are various caveats to the lottery that deem clubs ineligible for a lottery pick or a top-10 overall pick, generally for financial reasons, and we’ll outline how those rules affected the pool of lottery teams for 2024 below.

Prep Baseball’s Draft HQ is preparing a mock draft based on the outcome of today’s lottery, and we’ll publish an article this week that will highlight some of the candidates to hear their name called with the No. 1 overall pick come July.

The 2024 MLB Draft Lottery will take place today, Tuesday, at 5:30 p.m. ET, live from Nashville, the site of the Winter Meetings.

Of the 18 teams that did not make the playoffs, 17 of them are eligible for this year’s lottery. The Washington Nationals, despite being tied for the fifth-worst win percentage in baseball, cannot receive a top-10 overall pick due to revenue sharing rules that went into effect after they earned the No. 2 overall pick in 2023. They aren’t able to pick earlier than No. 10 overall come July.

Here are the 17 lottery-eligible teams otherwise, with the percentage of them receiving the first overall pick listed next to their name, preceded by their win percentage in 2023:

  • Oakland Athletics (.309): 18.3% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
  • Kansas City Royals (.346): 18.3%
  • Colorado Rockies (.364): 18.3%
  • Chicago White Sox (.377): 14.7%
  • St. Louis Cardinals (.438): 8.3%
  • Los Angeles Angels (.451): 6.1%
  • New York Mets (.463): 4.3%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (.469): 3%
  • Cleveland Guardians (.469): 2%
  • Detroit Tigers (.481): 1.6%
  • Boston Red Sox (.481): 1.2%
  • San Francisco Giants (.488): 1%
  • Cincinnati Reds (.506): 0.9%
  • San Diego Padres (.506): 0.7%
  • New York Yankees (.506): 0.6%
  • Chicago Cubs (.512): 0.4%
  • Seattle Mariners (.543): 0.2%

And here’s the order in which the 12 postseason teams will draft in 2024:

  • Miami Marlins (.519)
  • Milwaukee Brewers (.568)
  • Tampa Bay Rays (.611)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (.549)
  • Minnesota Twins (.537)
  • Baltimore Orioles (.623)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (.617)
  • Atlanta Braves (.642)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (.556)
  • Houston Astros (.556)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (.519)
  • Texas Rangers (.556)

Additionally, two teams will be awarded the final pair of first-round picks in the draft per Prospect Promotion Incentive rules: Arizona and Baltimore. The top-100-ranked rookies Corbin Carroll (Lakeside HS, WA, 2019) and Gunnar Henderson (Morgan Academy HS, AL, 2019) won the Rookie of the Year awards in their respective leagues, earning their ball clubs the Nos. 31 and 32 overall picks in the process.

Lastly, the Minnesota Twins will receive the No. 33 overall pick in the 2024 Draft as compensation for losing a player (Sonny Gray, Cardinals) to free agency after he declined the organization’s qualifying offer.

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