2016 PIAA Class AAA Super 16 (mid-April update)

By Jacob Gill
Pennsylvania Assistant Director of Scouting

and PBR staff

Three-and-a-half weeks into the season, it's time to roll out the first update to our Super 16s. These team "rankings" aren't a standard Top 25, but rather an effort to predict what everyone is striving for: state tournament berths. Instead of going down a rabbit hole by attempting to order teams from various parts of the state who play against vastly different levels of competition (note: strength of schedule is taken into account), we are going to try to compare apples to apples a bit more. Each update, we will present the schools we think are in the best position to earn state tournament berths out of their respective districts. Below are our predictions, in bracket order, for how we see the PIAA class AAA state tournament shaping up. A Watch List for each district is also included, with the teams on it absolutely in the mix to make the March to Medlar.

1. X-Y under "Berth" = [District]-[Bid]. For example, 7-2 is the runner-up from District VII.
2. If multiple districts are listed in one box, those districts will form a sub-regional to determine that bid.

2016 PIAA Class AAA Super 16
Berth School Record Notes
1-1 Holy Ghost Prep 5-0 As per usual, the Firebirds regular-season schedule hasn't provided much of a challenge. 2A contender Devon Prep and 4A juggernaut Council Rock North are on tap this week, however.
3-4 Northeastern 7-3 Solid wins over Northern York, Eastern York, and 4A Red Land, with two of three losses against teams slotted above them here and the third vs a solid 4A school.
2-1 Valley View 1-1 This obviously paints an incomplete picture, but District II essentially treats non-league games as glorified exhibitions and doesn't consider them part of a team's overall record. No movement here until the Cougars get a few more "real" games under their belt.
4-1 Shikellamy 6-1 Only blemish is an extra-inning loss vs District II 4A contender Hazleton Area. Braves get a chance to prove they belong this week with games vs Jersey Shore Area, Milton Area, and Mifflinburg Area, who each went 1-1 against the other two earlier this month.
11-1 Tamaqua Area 7-2 Blue Raiders appear to have reloaded just fine and get a chance to solidify their spot here on Wednesday against Pottsville Area.
3-2 Greencastle-Antrim 5-0 Jumped up from the preseason district 4-seed. The Blue Devils have made it through a solid schedule unscathed so far, although not without drama, as four of their wins came by one or two runs.
12-1 Archbishop Wood 6-0 Defending Philadelphia Catholic League champs are rolling along behind a pitching staff that has given up more than two runs just once.
3-3 Spring Grove Area 5-3 Preseason district runner-up has only one loss vs a 3A opponent (5-4 to Greencastle-Antrim on Saturday).
3-1 Twin Valley 7-1 Preseason district favorite is outscoring opponents 49-9 and hasn't given up more than two runs in a game yet.
12-2 Esperanza
5-3 A game better than reigning champ Franklin Towne Charter and a better record against common opponents gives Esperanza the nod for now. The two will settle it on the field May 4.
Punxsutawney Area 6-3 Chucks are 5-0 vs in-state competition by a combined score of 58-16. Most challenging week of year coming up with 4A Williamsport Area and Altoona Area, plus DH vs District VI 3A contender Hollidaysburg Area.
7-2 Montour 6-2 Spartans hold their spot following a solid start. Good test coming today vs quality West Allegheny team.
7-1 Chartiers Valley
7-2 The Colts ascend from the Watch List to the WPIAL's top spot following a strong start to the season that includes a win over Montour and their only losses coming in close games to quality 4A opponents.
Hollidaysburg Area 3-2 Have played a strong schedule so far, which includes an 11-1 win over sub-region contender Somerset Area, and an upcoming Saturday DH against perennial District IX champ Punxsutawney Area.
10-1 Cathedral Prep 5-1 Preseason favorite has only played one game against an in-state foe, but it was a 13-2 drubbing of WPIAL 3A contender Blackhawk.
7-3 Laurel Highlands
8-1 Unbeaten against six in-state opponents, whom the Mustangs have outscored 57-5.

Watch List
District I: Upper Moreland, Bishop Shanahan, Octorara Area, Upper Perkiomen
District II: Abington Heights, Crestwood, North Pocono, Scranton Prep
District III: Northern York, East Pennsboro, Eastern York, West Perry
District IV: Mifflinburg Area, Jersey Shore Area, Montoursville Area
Sub-Region V/VI: Somerset Area, Huntingdon Area
District VII: Knoch, Blackhawk, West Allegheny, Belle Vernon Area, Hopewell, Mars, Yough, Indiana Area
Sub-Region VIII/IX:
District X: Slippery Rock Area, Grove City Area, Harbor Creek
District XI: Northwestern Lehigh, Pottsville Area
District XII: Cardinal O'Hara, Bonner-Prendergast, Franklin Towne Charter, Boys' Latin

Previous PA Super 16 News

4/17 - PIAA Class AA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PAISAA Fab Four (mid-April update)
3/24 - PIAA Class AAAA Preseason Super 16
3/23 - PIAA Class AAA Preseason Super 16
3/22 - PIAA Class AA Preseason Super 16
3/21 - PIAA Class A Preseason Super 16
3/20 - PAISAA Preseason Fab Four